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Blog of the BCS Company World of Investments | 3 papers for the week. We expect a short-term market recovery
The Russian stock market fell more than 2% last week, so there is a high probability of a short-term recovery. At the same time, the lower boundary of the ascending channel was broken, ending the short-term uptrend that began in September. There are a number of strong support levels ahead, but the market's ultimate goal is to reach the 2500 mark again. • PIK: The inexplicable growth is coming to an end and we are expecting a correction to 620-630 rubles. • Moscow Exchange: A rebound to 211-213 rubles is possible. • Tatneft: Widening gap between risks and dividends in the Middle East, a buy signal.
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PIK share prices have shown a growth trend compared to the decline last week. There is no reason for such dynamics. The continuation of the monetary policy tightening cycle is just around the corner, and the difficulties with sales have not disappeared after the reduction of preferential programs. The price is already above the Bollinger band, and the stochastic oscillator is overbought. This is a sign that a reversal of the upward trend is inevitable. We expect that by the end of this week, the developer's shares will be trading in the range of 620-630 rubles.
Moscow Exchange stock prices have been falling since early October. There is no fundamental reason for this. This is due to the fact that interest income may increase due to tightening monetary policy. Now the price of the paper has reached the lower limit of the current descending channel and at the same time, oversold conditions are beginning to be observed in the trend reversal indicator. We expect a rebound and expect that by the end of this week, Moscow Exchange will be trading in the range of 211-213 rubles.
Tatneft shares are trading in a moderate downtrend after the suspension of dividend payments. At the same time, a buy signal was formed on the moving average convergence/divergence indicator, which confirmed being outside the oversold area of the stochastic oscillator. In addition, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may lead to an increase in oil prices, which will support the estimates of Russian oil companies. We consider the target price range until the end of this week to be 630-640 rubles.