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America and the world are waiting for the results of the US elections. The date of the US presidential election is November 5, 2024. Voting at polling stations will begin at 1:00 p.m. Moscow time (6:00 a.m. local time). And on the morning of November 6 at 8:00 a.m. Moscow time, the last section will be closed.
Americans must choose between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. Opinion polls show that the two possibilities are equal and that the difference does not exceed 1%. Harris on average 49%, Trump 48%. The others decide who to vote for at the last minute.
KP.RU monitors forecasts, breaking news, voting progress and exit poll results via online broadcasts. And of course, we will know the results of the US presidential election in the coming days or even weeks, whether Trump or Harris will win. The National Election Commission needs time to count mail-in ballots, and legal proceedings are possible.
The 47th President of the United States is elected to a four-year term. The state is a federal state governed by a president. The voting booth is former President Donald Trump (2017–2021), the Republican nominee, and Kamala Harris, the Vice President (since 2021) under Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Billionaire Trump is 78 years old and former attorney Harris is 60 years old.
Who is better for Russia: Trump or Harris?
For the President of the United States, asking Russia who is better is like asking whether a flood or a drought is better. Under Trump and Harris, our country will remain America's enemy. But there are nuances.
Kamala Harris used to be a lawyer and prosecutor. She built her career on her ability to make the right connections and her “non-white” background.
. As the interview shows, she is not distinguished by an extraordinary mindset led by the "gray eminences" of the Democratic Party, whose Moscow administration is more predictable than the Trump administration. He promised to continue supporting Ukraine.
Donald Trump is a businessman and impulsive. He is intelligent, yes, but compared to the last presidential election, he is a loser. This is also evident in the former president's interviews and debates.
He promises to "come to an agreement" with the Russian leadership. However, the details are unclear. Will he offer us to break off relations with China, or will he threaten us with strikes on our cities if we do not negotiate with kyiv on Washington's terms, or will he significantly delay Zelensky's golden account. He is more receptive...
KP experts have described in detail scenarios of what could happen if Trump and Harris win. Read about it in the article “Double predictions for the US presidential election”.
Regardless, no matter who wins, nothing good will happen to America. The division of society has gone too far.
The situation is uncertain, but analysts are of course making predictions. In the United States, there is Professor Allan Lichtman, known for the accuracy of his predictions. He has correctly counted the results of 9 out of 10 presidential elections. To achieve this, he developed the 13 Keys to the White House System. The system analyzes 13 signs that can help determine the outcome of the US presidential election.
But Christopher Varro (as Bloomberg calls him), nicknamed "the most accurate economist in the world" and the best forecaster of American affairs, is betting on Donald Trump's victory. That's the limit of forecasting.
For comparison, let’s recall the last election. Before Election Day 2020, Americans supported Biden 8% more than Trump. As a result, Biden recorded 51.3% and Trump 46.8% (a difference of 4.5%).
In 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5%. Results: Clinton 48.2%, Trump 46.1% (difference of 2.1%). No, we didn't spoil anything. So why did Hillary lose the election? We'll tell you in the next chapter.
American voters (168 million in total) cast their ballots in person for candidates at the polls. Or send in mail-in or early ballots — something 75 million Americans, including Kamala Harris, have already done. The election will be held in a single round.
But just because a candidate gets a simple majority of the vote doesn't mean they've won. After all, according to the U.S. Constitution, the winner is determined by the Electoral College. Each state in the country has a specific number. For example, California has the most, at 54, while Vermont has only 3. But dividing all the regular voters in the state by that number shows that the voters aren't weighted equally. One hundred thousand, the other two hundred thousand.
That's why Al Gore lost in 2000 by 500,000 more votes than Bush. And even though Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016, she got 2.9 million more votes.
The university has 538 electors. To win the US presidential election, 270 votes are needed.
So who nominates them? And on what basis do they vote? The casting is done by local party leaders at state party conventions or by direct nomination. They promise to vote for the presidential candidate who will be supported by the majority of the state's voters.
Here's what's interesting: Sometimes vows are broken. The last time Trump won Texas, two of his 38 electoral votes went against him. You won't get electrocuted for that. They'll be banned from politics and could even be fined.
The Electoral College vote is scheduled for December 17, 2024. It is expected to be approved by the U.S. Congress on January 6, 2025.
Volatile Note: What to Watch During Live Voting
Some US states traditionally vote Republican, while others vote Democratic. As in any region where predictions can be based on public opinion polls, no surprises are expected here.
But the actions of residents in seven of the 50 states do not accurately predict the outcome. These areas are called swing areas. The fate of the election is being played out here. Harris currently has 226 electoral votes and Trump has 219 electoral votes. The rest is unclear.
Let me remind you which are the swing states and give in parentheses the average results of the various American polls for Trump and Harris on the eve of the vote.
As you can see, the difference is in the statistical error. Some voters are still undecided.
Pennsylvania is considered the most important state. It is not surprising that Trump campaign manager Elon Musk temporarily moved his headquarters to Texas to coordinate his campaign.
In a recent interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda, the chairwoman of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, Ella Pamfilova, spoke in detail about the imperfections of the American electoral system. An interview with the chairman of the National Election Commission caused hysteria in the Western region. Ella Alexandrovna explained very clearly and in detail all the flaws of the scam.
These are just a few items on a grim list. The dead vote in American elections. The list includes millions of dead Americans. In some states, you only need to provide your name and no ID to receive a ballot. There is no video surveillance in the territory. Since each state has different laws and procedures, there is no uniform system for counting votes. Immigrants were able to vote in Democratic-run areas of the United States.
Trump is now betting that Republicans will post lawyers at every polling place. This is impossible, of course, but the Trumpists are prepared to document violations far more thoroughly than they did four years ago, and to litigate with all the zeal they can muster. Ultimately, Donald will not be able to run for president again until the next election. After all, he will be 82 years old. We all saw how the attempt to extend the political life of 81-year-old Biden ended.
An exit poll is a survey of voters who have already cast their ballots. Pollsters typically announce the results the evening after the election. Some U.S. states allow exit poll data to be released starting at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time (1:00 a.m. Moscow time on November 5). But not in swing states.
Here are the dates when polls close in the swing states:
The results are not expected to be known immediately after the last polling station in the country closes at 8 a.m. Moscow time on November 6.
In the last presidential election, just four days later, the American mainstream media announced Biden's victory.
First, we had record voter turnout. Second, the pandemic forced millions of Americans to vote by mail. On Election Day alone, the population reached 64 million (as you can see, early voting has already surpassed that number). It took longer than usual to receive and count ballots.
In Pennsylvania, Trump has filed a lawsuit seeking to block the counting of ballots that arrive after Election Day. Republican headquarters are being sued in Michigan, Georgia and Nevada.
Donald Trump did not admit defeat, but on November 21, 18 days after the vote, he ordered the transfer of the file to Biden and company. Then, on December 6, there was an attack on the Capitol by Trumpists opposed to the victory of the Democratic Party.
Well, in 2020, when Republican Bush ran against Democrat Gore, the votes were recounted and reprinted until December 12th (!). The fate of the election was decided by the results of thousands of votes.
Given the intensity of the current fight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, things could get painful. But it also has its limits. Voters will finally have to cast their ballots on December 17, 2024. That means the maximum time an American can count on is 46 days. Unless, of course, something completely unusual happens.
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