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Retail lending market to cool by a third in Q4
In the fourth quarter, the volume of the retail credit market will decrease by 36%* compared to the same period last year, and the volume of issuance will reach approximately 2.7 trillion rubles. At the same time, VTB expects that the total volume of market sales will fall by more than 15% by the end of the year and reach 13.5 trillion rubles. This forecast was presented by Deputy Manager, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the bank Georgy Gorshkov during FINOPOLIS 2024.
The most noticeable decline in the fourth quarter will be seen in mortgages. The lending market will shrink by 1.2 trillion rubles (-48%). A decline in sales is also expected for cash loans (-33%), amounting to 1 trillion rubles. Only the car loan market recorded a surplus (+12%): the volume of loans amounted to 527 billion rubles.
According to VTB forecasts, the total volume of loan sales for ten months of the current year will reach about 11.7 trillion rubles, which is 14% lower than the amount for January-October last year. The bank's dynamics will be at the market level. The volume of retail loans by the end of 10 months will reach 2 trillion rubles.
This year, secured loan sales (mortgages, cars) are expected to reach $7.5 trillion, once again exceeding cash loan sales (6 trillion). The volume of mortgages issued will amount to 5.1 trillion rubles, which is almost 35% lower than the result of 2023. Demand for car loans will show positive dynamics (about +60%), and the volume of loans issued this year may exceed a record 2.4 trillion rubles for Russia.
"The market continues to reduce lending to individuals and redirect clients' funds to savings. The growth of interest rates and changes in mortgage programs against the backdrop of record offers for savings products create conditions for the so-called "credit winter". We expect a decrease in demand for retail loans by more than 15% compared to last year's results and have not yet found prerequisites for a change in the situation at the beginning of next year," said Georgy Gorshkov.