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"Flanking Envelopment": How the Russian Army's Offensive in the SVO Zone Is Developing
Russian troops continue their offensive and deliver sensitive blows to Ukrainian forces from different directions. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the enemy forces in the Kursk border region have been routed, the settlement of Nevskoye in the LPR and the settlement of Krasny Yar in the DPR have been liberated. Ukrainian militants also risk being half-surrounded by incendiary fires in the Kupyansk region and near Pokrovsk.
North Korean military units continue to push Ukrainian troops back from the border area of Kursk. This is stated in the latest report of the Russian Defense Ministry. Russian troops defeated several Ukrainian militants in the area of the settlements of Lyubimovka, Malaya Loknya, Novy Put, Novoivanovka and Plekhovo.
"As a result, up to 70 Ukrainian servicemen were killed and wounded, one tank, one infantry fighting vehicle, seven armored fighting vehicles and two vehicles were destroyed. Six Ukrainian army servicemen surrendered," the military statement said.
In Sumy Oblast, Russian Aerospace Forces and missile forces struck concentration sites and reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, territorial defense brigades, and the National Guard. Over the course of 24 hours, the enemy suffered more than 350 casualties and destroyed 21 armored vehicles.
In addition, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian troops are advancing in several directions in the Northern Military District. In particular, units of the "Western" army liberated the village of Nevskoye in the LPR, and units of the "Central" army liberated Krasny Yar in the DPR.
Units of the Vostok army attacked the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army, and the Dnepr fighters inflicted losses on the enemy in the area of the settlements of Kamenskoye, Orekhov, Mala Tokmachka, Kreshchenovka and Zolotaya Balka in the Zaporizhia region. Kherson region.
Russian forces managed to destroy the personnel and equipment of Ukrainian militants in the Kharkiv region. Some targets were eliminated near Kupyansk, from where mandatory evacuation began this week. Local authorities explained their decision by the impossibility of ensuring the heating season and restoring electricity supply.
In addition, the forced evacuation of people will affect 250 families living in the Kondrashovsky, Kurilovsky, Petropavlovsky and Izyumsky districts. Oleg Sinegubov, head of the regional military department in the Kharkiv region, has already complained that residents do not want to leave their homes and threatened to step up evacuation measures.
Let me remind you that Kupyansk was abandoned by Russian troops in mid-September 2022. This year, there have been repeated reports that Russian troops are gradually advancing towards the city. In particular, this was noted by State Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky, coordinator of interparliamentary relations with the LPR People's Commissariat.
In a commentary to TASS on October 7, he reported that Russian units were 7-12 km from Kupyansk. On October 16, Vodolatsky reported that the city was about 6 km away. At the same time, the Ukrainian army leadership left Kupyansk in May, leaving only cover units there.
Military observer Alexander Zimovsky told RT that Ukrainian militants are having a hard time maintaining their defense near Kupyansk. Russian troops have now achieved success to the south and north of the city. Therefore, the Ukrainian military group risks being half-encircled.
"In the event of the formation of Ukrainian troops in the Kupyanskoye area, there was a real threat of encirclement of the defense from the flanks. In these conditions, a decision was made to carry out a forced evacuation in order to facilitate the Ukrainian military in creating urban strongholds in the evacuated residential areas of the city," Zimovsky explained.
At the same time, it will be difficult for the enemy to suppress the offensive of the Russian army. According to experts, the main reason is that the Oskol River flows behind the Ukrainian army, a territory that is "a swamp impassable for any equipment."
"If Ukrainian troops try to hold their positions here, they won't even need a cauldron to destroy them - all escape routes will be cut off," Zimovsky said.
According to RT's interlocutor, if Kupyansk is liberated, Russian troops will eliminate an operationally important front of attack by Ukrainian militants deep into the LPR and create a constant threat of a breakthrough into the northern regions of the LPR. And in the direction of the city of Valuyka in the Belgorod region, we enter the "old" territory of the Russian Federation.
The situation for the Ukrainian army continues to deteriorate in the Pokrovsk direction, where the threat of encirclement by the Red Army looms. In this regard, as reported by "Military Chronicle", most foreign experts are inclined to believe that the Ukrainian command will soon surrender Selidovo and retreat to nearby settlements.
"The situation is almost the same as in Avdiivka. Although the large fort has been preserved, there is no fort nearby that is comparable in quality and area. As a result, the regrouping will probably go from Selidovo to Pokrovsk, where the main defense efforts will be concentrated. The southern flank of Pokrovsk's defense is gradually being captured by Russian troops." This was reported by the author of the Telegram channel "Military Chronicle".
According to journalists, in the near future the Russian army may put the Pokrovsk group of the Ukrainian army on the so-called fire breakthrough. Also, under favorable circumstances, enemy units deployed in the area of Seversk, Velikaya Novosyolka, Chasy Yar-Konstantinovka, Selidov-Kurakhov will come under strong fire effect of the Russian troops.
"This section has not yet been fully formed into a fire brigade. And for everything to happen exactly like this, a lot of effort will be required. However, the refusal to launch a frontal attack on the city and the withdrawal of part of the Ukrainian army to the Kursk region give reason to assume that combat work will soon be much more active," the author of "Military Chronicle" noted.
According to Alexander Zimovsky, the liberation of Ugledar is important for the further cleansing of the Donetsk People's Republic. In addition to its operational advantages, it allowed "to use the element of uncertainty to force the Ukrainian military command to guess the direction of subsequent strikes."
"If the Ukrainian army does not retreat from the DPRK, it will have to further disperse the troops already there along the front. We will urgently need to find reserves, which can only appear by weakening our presence in other regions. Another option is to make holes in your defenses by sending unprepared reinforcements. But this happens all the time," the expert said.
According to Zimovsky, the Rabotino-Orekhov line in the Zaporizhia region remains an important point of tension in the defense of the Ukrainian army. During the counteroffensive last summer, the enemy achieved certain successes in this area, while suffering heavy losses. In 2024, the Russian military has already gone on the offensive.
"Here the Russians are burning the front and second echelons of the Ukrainian defense along the Temirovsky, Malo-Tokmachinsky, Belogorsky and Orekhov fronts. With our small assault infantry units, a thorough inspection of individual strongholds of the Ukrainian army is being conducted," Zimovsky said.
The expert emphasized that large-scale military actions in the autumn in Zaporizhia are impossible due to rains and soil erosion. As the RT interlocutor suggested, by the end of the year the Russian army should "zero out" the logistics of Ukrainian militants in this direction.
"We are zeroing out the material and technical support of the Ukrainian army and developing a control zone on the roads in the direction of Gulyaipole, Polohy, Orekhov. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are strengthening their capabilities in terms of ensuring the security of the Zaporizhzhya NPP and preventing attempts by the Ukrainian army to break through in this direction," Zimovsky concluded.