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Chancellor Scholz is ready to talk to President Putin. But Zelensky is not ready at all. Commentary by Georgy Bovt The German Chancellor has declared his readiness to negotiate with President Putin on Ukraine.
The German economy is one of the most affected in the European Union by the war of economic sanctions between the West and Russia. However, the EU is not yet ready to give up financial and military support for Ukraine. Because this would mean admitting defeat in the confrontation with Russia, the political scientist believes.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, speaking in the Bundestag, confirmed his readiness to negotiate directly with President Vladimir Putin to stabilize the situation in Ukraine. "The time has come when, in addition to clearly supporting Ukraine, we must do everything possible to ensure that the war does not continue forever," Scholz said. He said that he would cooperate with his German partners and contact the Russian president only if they adhere to "clear principles." He added that no dialogue should be conducted without Kyiv's knowledge. Earlier, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that there were no proposals for a telephone conversation between Scholz and Putin, but reminded Putin that he remains open to contact. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky presented his "victory plan" in the Verkhovna Rada. There is no talk of negotiations. He specifically stated that there will be no territorial concessions. So what next?
Unsurprisingly, this is not the first time the German chancellor has suggested that it would be a good idea to put an end to this. The German economy is probably one of the European Union countries that is suffering the most from the economic sanctions war between the West and Russia. Moreover, Germany’s previously export-oriented economy was heavily dependent on Russian energy resources.
The country’s GDP growth since the beginning of 2019 before Covid was just 0.3%. The eurozone average is almost 4%, while the US average is 11%. Industrial production is only 80-90% of what it was last year. Energy-intensive industries such as chemicals, metallurgy and paper have been particularly hard hit. These industries account for only 16% of Germany’s industrial output, but consume almost 80% of industrial energy.
The problem is aggravated by the fact that China, whose economy is currently slowing down somewhat, is reducing imports of previously imported German goods and replacing them with its own products. For example, cars. Moreover, the Russian car market has already been lost to Germany. Economic difficulties are already affecting Germany's support for Ukraine. It is expected that next year the scale will be reduced from the originally planned 8 billion euros to about 4 billion euros.
However, abstract proposals and statements like “we are ready to talk to President Putin” are still floating around. Firstly, because there are no concrete proposals in the West, other than a growing sense of fatigue, vaguely expressed in the media. There are also no full-fledged contacts between Moscow and the West. Secondly, because Moscow has exhausted its potential for conducting strategic military operations and does not consider it possible to achieve its goals. Thirdly, and most importantly, Kyiv does not intend to negotiate and intends to continue the war.
Zelensky, who has realized that the West, which has unwaveringly put forward the slogan "Putin must not win!", has nowhere to retreat, not only demonstrates confidence that support for Ukraine will continue in the future, but also expands its boundaries. It is becoming increasingly obvious that this direction of support is directed towards involving allies directly in a military conflict. Because you yourself said: "Putin must not win." In this sense, Kyiv is not only heavily dependent on Western support, but the current situation does not allow its allies to simply sever these ties.
So, despite the fact that there is not even close unity in NATO ranks regarding Ukraine’s membership, Zelensky puts forward the first point of his “winning plan” even before joining NATO. End the war. From his point of view, everything is correct. As the American proverb goes: aim high. If in August some allies openly called the invasion of the Kursk region a “reckless adventure,” now they have gotten used to it, and Kyiv has made the continuation of the invasion the second point of its plan. Requests for permission to launch long-range weapons deep into Russia are also persistently repeated. So far, the West has resisted. “The US approach to limiting Ukraine’s use of American long-range weapons remains the same,” said Julianne Smith, the US representative to NATO. However, it cannot be ruled out that such a reserved permission could be granted in the near future. For example, not to attack civilian targets for agreed purposes. Not now, but this could change depending on the outcome of the US elections.
As for the provisions on the deployment of a certain “comprehensive package of non-nuclear strategic deterrence” in Ukraine, it includes a secret annex, which could become one of the options for introducing a no-fly zone over the territory controlled by Kyiv, or introducing a NATO contingent there. In exchange, Kyiv promised its allies generous access to Ukrainian resources, including uranium, titanium and lithium.
Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov assessed Zelensky's "victory plan," calling it "temporary" and claiming that it is a "disguised plan" by the United States to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. He called on the Ukrainian authorities to come to their senses and understand the reasons that led to the military conflict.
In Western countries, including the American media, skepticism prevails, reflecting the corresponding mood of politicians. But no one will publicly criticize him or repeat words of support. And the problem is not that Zelensky's plan is unrealistic, but that the West has no real alternative to it. Therefore, they will continue to act as they are. And this may continue for years.