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Inflation in the Russian Federation.
Central Bank's view on inflation: acceleration on all fronts in September
The Central Bank publishes the September inflation report (http://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/50729/CPD_2024-9.pdf) and estimates of the price index taking into account seasonality (http://cbr.ru/Content/) I did this. document/files/108632/indicators_cpd.xlsx). • CPI: 9.8% mn saar (7.5% in August), 3-month average 11.2% • BICP (core inflation): 9.1% (7.7%), 7.6% • BICP excluding travel services: 9.6% (9.4%) 8.2% - highest since November 2023 • CPI excluding fruits and vegetables, gasoline and utilities: 10.6% (3.1%), 6.8% • Goods excluding fruits and vegetables: 11.5% (8.0%), 8.9% • Gasoline prices Non-food goods: 5.4% (5.3%), 5.0% • Household services: 10.1% (8.9%), 9.6%
The overall inflation estimate for September (9.8% million skr) coincided with our estimates (https://t.me/russianmacro/19917). The Central Bank estimated core inflation higher than we did.
The inflation picture from the Central Bank’s perspective looks more pessimistic than we expected. Acceleration – applies to all persistent inflation indices. Looking at these figures, the persistent inflation estimate that the central bank will rely on when making interest rate decisions is likely to be 8-9% saar. This is far from the target. This estimate justifies the decision to tighten the MMI.