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Fitness has started to run out of steam
Growing competition among sports centers and the transition of consumers to savings models contribute to the slowdown in the growth of the fitness services market. If in January-July 2024 it reached 24-25% year-on-year, then in August-September it did not exceed 17-19%. The number of new facilities opened decreased by a quarter. The slowdown may become more pronounced next year.
According to FitnessData calculations, the revenue of Russian fitness clubs in the third quarter of 2024 reached 61.6 billion rubles, an increase of 20% compared to the previous year. The dynamics are worse than the results of the first half of the year, when the market recorded 121.5 billion rubles, which is 24% more than in the same period last year. Maxim Borovikov, head of FitnessData, said that the pace began to slow down in August. In July, sales grew by 25% year-on-year to 19.8 billion rubles, but in August they grew by 17% to 19.9 billion rubles, and in September - by 19% to 21.9 billion rubles.
Olga Kiseleva, president of the Association of Fitness Industry Operators (AOFI), said that in many regions, sales growth in August and September was lower than in the previous seven months. The National Health Service (NFS) predicts that growth in key indicators (sales, membership sales and additional services) over the past two years will be at its lowest level in the third quarter of 2024. NFS Director Elena Silina said the results were worse than expected. Irina Tumanova, CEO of the Xfit brand, noted that customer activity has decreased. According to her, club attendance in September was down 30% compared to the previous year, card sales fell by 4%, and additional services - by 2%.
Olga Kiseleva attributes this trend to a high base. At this time a year ago, prices had risen significantly, which led to a significant increase in sales. Now she says the market is reaching a plateau of sorts. Irina Tumanova does not rule out that the high yield on bank deposits is having an effect. People prefer to save without rushing.
According to Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline-Analytics, new promotions and discounts are already being held in the sports services sector. He explains this by the gradual saturation of the market and increased competition caused by active openings. In the first six months of this year, commercial investments in new facilities have grown by 70% compared to last year (see Kommersant of July 22).
According to Olga Kiseleva, the current dynamics somewhat weaken optimism in the industry. Officially, the number of openings is small. According to FitnessData, 60 new establishments (15 full-format clubs and 45 studios) entered the Russian market in the third quarter. A year ago, there were about 80 of them, but the rate of decline was 25%.
DNA Realty CEO Anton Belykh said that in terms of choosing new premises, there is currently low activity in large fitness centers with an area of over 2,000 square meters. At the same time, small sports studios rent premises with an area of 120-150 square meters. m on the ground floors of residential buildings are still in operation, he notes.
Active opening of small studios is not always determined by market factors. Ms. Kiseleva notes that the emergence of studios is often associated with the desire of developers to diversify the infrastructure of residential complexes, and the initiators of such projects are often employees of system clubs who have decided to develop their business. Mikhail Burmistrov assumed that new fitness clubs will continue to open until the end of the year. But by 2025 the pace will clearly slow down, he said.
Elena Silina does not rule out that there will be a chance to partially restore the slowdown in growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2024. Although other market participants doubt it. "You shouldn't expect miracles - a further increase in the Central Bank's key rate is being discussed (against the backdrop of high deposit rates. - Kommersant), so the trend towards savings on the part of consumers will most likely continue," says Irina Tumanova. In her opinion, sales may increase only before the New Year. FitnessData expects that market turnover in the fourth quarter will increase by 16-19% compared to last year. According to analysts, it may not be possible to raise prices as aggressively as a year ago.