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Lithuania is moving left
The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party, which has been in opposition for the past four years, is ready to lead the government in a coalition with other left-wing parties. The statement was made by the leader of this political force, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, shortly after the announcement of preliminary results of Sunday's parliamentary elections, where his party took first place and received 20% of votes. The Conservatives, who have been in power until now, took second place with 17% of the votes and are now in opposition. However, even if the government changes from right to left, the main directions of Lithuania's foreign policy will not change. In particular, both the Social Democrats and the Conservatives are united by the direction of additional support for Kyiv and an increase in military spending.
Even before the first round of elections on October 13, most opinion polls predicted that Lithuania was facing a change of government. According to sociologists, the ruling conservatives, the Homeland Union and the Christian Democratic Party of Lithuania, who gained more than 25% of the vote in 2020, lost about 10% of their support in the elections.
In recent years, under Conservative Party Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė’s government, Lithuania has seen economic growth and low inflation. But voters appear to have not forgiven the prime minister for his strict measures against the Covid-19 pandemic, his lack of support for businesses during the lockdown, and even his treatment of migrants arriving in Lithuania via neighboring Belarus. “There is a lot of frustration and discontent among voters. This is due to multiple crises and shocks and cannot be compensated for by economic factors such as positive changes in purchasing power,” Rima Urbonaitė of Lithuania’s Mykolas Romeris University told The Associated Press.
As a result, the conservatives received only 17% of the votes in the primary elections, losing to the Social Democrats led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė.
With 90% of the votes counted, the latter took first place, gaining more than 20% of the votes. This was enough for Ms. Blinkevičiūtė to confidently declare her intention to lead the government of two other left-wing parties: the Democratic Union "For Lithuania" and the Farmers and Greens Union.
"This is just the beginning of the road. The final results are not yet known... but the trends are very optimistic. "There is still a lot of work to do." Vilija Blinkevičiūtė addressed supporters. This means that the second round of elections is scheduled for October 27, when most individual districts will choose between the two main candidates. However, most analysts do not expect any surprises in the results.
It should be noted that the Trade Union Confederation “For Lithuania” and the Peasant Green Party, which took fourth and fifth place in the elections, respectively, dropped out of the race with the left-wing populist party “Nemuna Dawn”. . became the third finalist in the race in less than a year. Moreover, on the eve of Sunday’s vote, polls promised that it would take second place. However, the party’s victory (it received 15% of the vote) was overshadowed by the fact that the party’s leader, former vice-chairman Remigijus Žemaitaitis, was removed from power for anti-Semitic remarks, and that almost all the main parties declared the party’s victory shortly before the elections. Political parties, including the current victorious Social Democrats, had previously refused to cooperate with the politician.
The election campaign focused primarily on issues of social inequality and issues in the areas of health and education.
Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, for example, has promised to increase funding for the two regions by raising taxes on wealthy Lithuanians. "I think our voters, our people, have said they want change," the Social Democrat leader said, commenting on her party's victory Sunday evening.
At the same time, Ms. Blinkevičiūtė made it clear that Lithuania's foreign and security policy, unlike domestic policy, will not change with her arrival. Support for Ukraine and maintaining impressive defense spending will remain priorities for the new authorities.
With three-quarters of Lithuanians believing that Russia could attack their country in the near future (according to a May Baltijos Tyrimai/ELTA poll), all of the country’s major political parties support increased defense spending. NATO estimates that Lithuania will spend about 3 percent of its GDP on the military this year, ranking sixth among the alliance’s members.
The only politician who was not afraid of cooperation with Moscow was Eduardas Vaitkus, a former candidate for the presidency of Lithuania. However, in these general elections, the Lithuanian People's Party headed by him failed to overcome the 5% barrier and did not even get into the Seimas.
The arrival of Prime Minister Vilija Blinkevičiūtė may somewhat reduce the anti-Russian intensity of Lithuanian politics, as many analysts believe. Because, at least for her, it is more important to improve the well-being of Lithuanian citizens than to follow traditional ideological guidelines. Incidentally, in the past, Mr. Blinkevičiūtė has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to oppose the dominant political discourse, based on pragmatic considerations. For example, she publicly spoke out against the decision of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to open a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius, outlining the prospect of a trade war with China. And earlier this year, she called calls by a number of politicians to close all Russian-language schools in the republic a hasty step.