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Trading Signals! | BTCUSD in Focus of the Day. Seasonal Trends and Probabilities for Monday 11/04/2024
BTCUSD in Focus Today. Seasonal Trends and Odds for Monday, November 4, 2024
The full list of analyzed assets is given below and includes 60 devices. Here you can find assets of the Forex market, popular assets on the Moscow Exchange, popular assets on the CME exchange in Chicago and the main cryptocurrency sector: Bitcoin and all altcoins.
The first block of information contains limited buy and sell zones. This information includes statistical indicators of the volatility of each asset, as well as the nearest execution of the option taking into account the risk premium. (For precise calculations, I recommend watching the theoretical video in the public domain - How to use the seasonality block).
Now the information block #1 itself looks like this:
The second block of information contains the vector of directional movement and the probability (pay close attention to the market price of each asset. For accurate calculations, only the market price of spot assets should be taken). How to use probability in relation to market prices of spot assets - watch the freely available video (How to use seasonal blocks). This information, including odds, helps determine the chances of closing the day in relation to the opening price of the day.
Now the information block number 2 itself looks like this:
Now we have an example where we organize limit position blocks with the probability of processing each asset according to its main activity and taking into account seasonality. For other assets, you can watch the theoretical video (how to use seasonal blocks) and then create your own buy and sell limit blocks. Below, as an example, I will show you three major currencies today: the euro (EURUSD), gold (XAUUSD), and the NASDAQ index (NASDAQ).
Today, the probability that the euro will end the day above the opening price of 1.0873 is 53%.
Buy the area 1.0818-1.0751. However, we expect purchases below the blue block with the target of the lower border at 1.0751. When buying, the volume of your transaction decreases by 4 times.
Sell zone: 1.0944-1.1090, target: 1.0873. The dollar background is strong, and sales are a priority.
In the case of gold today, there is a 53% chance that it will close below the daily market price of 2738.39 by the end of the day.
Buy zone 2729.14-2698.04. However, we expect to buy at levels below 2682.62 with the target of the lower border of the blue block at 2698.04. When buying, the volume of your transaction is reduced by 4 times.
Selling zone 2751.94-2791.16. However, we expect selling above the level of 2810.76 with the target of the upper border of the red block at 2791.16. In selling, we reduce the volume of transactions by 4 times.
According to the index, there is a 60% chance that the market will close above the daily opening price of 20015.00 by today's close.
Purchase area 19988.68-19939.00. However, we expect purchases at levels below 19914.51 with the target of the lower border of the blue block at 19939.00. When buying, the volume of your transaction is reduced by 4 times.
Trading area 20134.22-20594.75. However, we expect sales above the level of 20825.32 with the target of the upper border of the red block at 20594.75. In sales, we reduce the volume of transactions by 4 times.
Key players' deals. Global movement vectors and weekly.
4- Combine this approach with other elements of verification. It is important to use seasonal maps with the general background of Federal Reserve policy, weekly trends of key players and local news background.
5. Watch the theoretical video with a detailed description of the movement algorithm to find the necessary movement vectors, including global and weekly trends of key players.
Here is the new intraday seasonality map for the coming week.
1. If the vector is BUY on a given day, it means that it will try to hold that asset above its market price on that day with a probability of at least 53% until the close of the day.
2-If the vector SELLS on a given day, it means that it will try to hold the asset below the market price of the day with a probability of at least 53% until the close of the day.
The more repetitions of the same trend within 3-3 trading days, the more likely it is that the asset will move in the desired direction.
5- If there is a discrepancy - the expectations are aggressive. In such situations, we either miss signals or trade with a volume that is 4 times smaller than the actual volume that we use for safe trading.
Now you have a news feed of analyst expectations, analysis of individual indicators of the day and what to expect from key trading sessions. I will also provide information on whether the US dollar is currently strong or weak. The directional movement of the pair itself depends on the background of the US dollar.
Tuesday – Partial easing of interest rates against the Australian dollar is expected. US presidential election. Volatility in the US dollar is expected, with the possibility of strengthening and then weakening, according to PMI and ISM data.
Thursday – Pound interest rate is expected to weaken the asset. US labor market data and interest rate announcements are expected to weaken the US dollar. Fed meeting.
I wish everyone a good mood and benefit throughout the day!