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'Terrible Retribution': Israel Prepares Response to Drone Strike on IDF
Israel has missed another Hezbollah attack. The IDF has acknowledged that drones launched by the Lebanese Shiite group struck an Israeli military base near the town of Benjamin, 40 miles south of the Lebanese border. Four Israeli soldiers were killed and 58 were wounded. The news has the world even more eagerly awaiting Tel Aviv's promised "retaliatory strikes" on Iran and its allies.
It has long been no secret that Hezbollah is closely connected to Iran. So, to use boxing terminology, an “unsuccessful strike” in the form of a low-flying drone from a Tehran proxy could become another justification for the Israeli generals’ brutal actions. (The main reason is the arrival of a “swarm” of Iranian missiles in Israel on October 1, 2024, which was a response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the mass explosions of pagers in Lebanon and Israel. Strikes on their territory).
The IDF has been waging open war against Lebanon since mid-September, forcing almost all civilians living near the Israeli border to flee north across the Litani River. But will the Israelis go further and decide to deal with Iran after yet another “punishment” from Lebanon, which has little ability to defend itself?
"Israel will certainly attack Iran, but I don't think it will target the Persian state's nuclear facilities. That would be too risky," Boris Dolgov, a senior fellow at the Israel Institute's Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, predicts the Russian Academy of Sciences' Oriental Studies. "Israel will likely limit its attacks to Iran's oil infrastructure or non-nuclear military facilities."
One argument for Israel's "restraint" may be its negative reaction to America's bellicose actions. Washington has long called on Tel Aviv to show restraint (albeit without much success).
Nevertheless, the US will under no circumstances abandon Israel or completely abandon its military support, predicts Gevorg Mirzayan, associate professor of political science at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Giving Israel to the Americans means giving up all influence in the Middle East. Biden will not agree to this. And there will be no sanctions against Israel, and Netanyahu has long ceased to fear verbal reproach from Washington."
But Boris Dolgov points to some worrying signs that Israel could take radical action. In the past four days, the IDF has been involved in four incidents related to clashes with Lebanese UN peacekeepers in Lebanon in 1978. And Netanyahu has publicly called on UN peacekeepers to leave Lebanon.
"All this seems to be paving the way," explains Boris Dolgov. "The Israelis do not want the UN to interfere in any way with them during another IDF attack on Lebanon. The most recent attack was recorded on Sunday, which means that Israeli attacks will soon follow."
Iran has announced that it has hundreds more ballistic missiles in its arsenal in case of an Israeli attack that would lead to "terrible retaliation."