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Electric cars are slowing down
The decline in new electric vehicle sales is accelerating. Sales in September totaled 1.27 million units, down 28% from the same period last year, after a 12% drop in August and 1% in July. Experts say stricter import regulations, high prices and insufficient infrastructure are to blame. However, analysts expect a positive trend for the year and predict that EV sales will reach 17,000-19,000 units.
According to Avtostat, sales of new electric vehicles in Russia in September amounted to 1.27 million units, which is 28% less than the same period last year and 2% less than in August. The market leader, Chinese Zeekr, showed a 10% decrease in sales: 586 units were sold. Sales of Moskvich electric vehicles increased sixfold to 157 units. Third place went to Ora, a sub-brand of Haval, which sold 74 electric vehicles, which is 37 times more than last year. Sales of Evolute, assembled in Lipetsk, fell by 70% to 57 units, and the Avatr brand (produced by Changan and Huawei) by 11% to 39 units.
In annual terms, the market has been shrinking for three months in a row, and the decline is accelerating. Sales in July fell by 1% to 1.09 million units, and in August they fell by 12% to 1.3 million units. Avtostat attributes the negative dynamics to the entry into force of a government decree, according to which, from April 1, cars with electric motors can only be cleared through Russian customs, even if they are imported from the EAEU countries (see Kommersant, February 14). Previously, such offers were more competitive, since customs clearance of cars was carried out on more favorable terms than in the Russian Federation. In March 2024, a month before the innovation, almost 2.5 million new electric cars were sold, which is a record figure and 3.5 times higher than the level of March 2023.
"The observed market slowdown is partly due to the base effect associated with a noticeable increase in sales volumes last year, the persistence of relatively high prices for electric vehicles, underdeveloped infrastructure and the expansion of supply in the car market," said Vladimir Bespalov, an analyst at Euler Analytical Technologies. In September, buyers focused on gasoline-powered cars, which is expected to lead to an increase in waste collection (from October 1). The company attributes the decline in Zeekr sales to news that imported cars are likely to be blocked from July 15.
Rolf and Avilon have not recorded a decline in sales of new electric vehicles. Sergey Melyukh, director of Avilon Electro, says that demand is "high and stable," but notes that a number of negative factors are holding back sales. Among them, top managers name the fear of buyers without long-term operational statistics and the necessary customer experience, the ban on deliveries of popular brands to entities with VAT from February 1, and the underdevelopment of infrastructure in the region.
As Rolf and Avilon predicted, October sales are expected to be lower than September. “Cold weather is just around the corner, which has never been good for electric car sales. Batteries drain faster in cold weather,” says Nikolay Ivanov, director of new car sales at Rolf. BorisHof expects recycling collections to increase from 2025, which will boost demand for electric cars in the final months of the year.
Despite the recent market downturn, new EV sales totaled 13.96 million units, up 60% year-on-year, according to January-September figures. Ziker (6.15 million units) and Moskovsky Plyazh (1.07 million units) took first and second place, up 4.5 and 3.7 times year-on-year, respectively. Evolut, down 26% to 1.04 million units, Volkswagen (928 units, -38%), and Tesla (590 units, -41%) also rounded out the top five.
According to Sergey Udalov from Avtostat, by the end of 2024, sales of new electric cars in Russia may increase to 17,000 units against 14,000 in 2023. Mr. Bespalov estimates the market size at 18-19 thousand units. Sergey Melyukh said that the increase in the cost of recycling electric cars from 2025 will have a greater negative impact on the public sector. Nikolay Ivanov believes that there is an additional 300,000 rubles. The average price is 5 million rubles. "This will not affect anything." Sergey Udalov predicts that the market for new electric cars will continue to grow in 2025.