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Let's start saving: experts predict a decline in housing prices - when and by how much will apartments become cheaper
The real estate market is going through difficult times right now. As apartment prices remain high, demand from buyers is declining. Add to this the very expensive mortgages with interest rates exceeding 20%. But there is also good news. Experts predict that all this will lead to a decrease in housing prices.
There is no surge in demand in the secondary housing market. The problem is that mortgage interest rates are incredibly high (around 25%). Even if a buyer sells an apartment and uses the proceeds as a down payment, he or she will still have to take out a loan from the bank. This places a significant financial burden on potential buyers. As the end of the year approaches, resale owners are starting to notice this trend.
"Owners expected an increase in demand from the secondary market and were in no hurry to cut costs. But this did not happen. In general, purchasing activity this year lagged behind by 18% compared to last year," said Kirill Kulakov, professor at the National Research University Moscow State University of Civil Engineering and chairman of the SRO "Association of Regional Appraisers."
A decrease in prices on the secondary real estate market can be expected before the end of the year. However, according to Kulakov, the decrease in cost may not be sharp, but amount to about 10%.
In early October, the average maximum interest rate on deposits in the top 10 banks approached 20%, reaching 19.78% per annum. This is almost the maximum level since 2009. Market experts predicted that in the new year it could reach 30%.
What are the prices for new buildings?
At the same time, purchasing new housing is also problematic. In October, prices for new buildings increased in most large cities of Russia (47 out of 70). According to experts from Mir Kvartir, on average, prices per square meter increased by 0.7%, reaching 138.4 thousand rubles.
— The supply has increased by 17.5% compared to the previous month, meaning that sales are stagnating. However, in many cities, developers are in no hurry to reduce prices, which indicates some safety margin in the construction sector. Part of the price increase may be due to the disappearance of cheap supply. Small apartments are also overcrowded. Experts note that over the month, the average area of apartments in new buildings has decreased from 52.8 m2 to 52.4 m2.
— The era of price distortions that began with the advent of low interest rates in 2020 is over. In the next two years, the real estate market will deteriorate significantly, says real estate agent Evgeniya Miller. — Initially, developers will save money through internal installments, which will lead to higher prices. Then there will be a recession, a lull in the mass market, lower prices in the primary market, increased demand for rental housing and the development of the theme of lifetime pension provision in the country. There is money in the country, and "bricks" are one of the simplest and most reliable tools for preserving and increasing capital.
In this situation, the only option for people without housing is renting. However, its cost has increased significantly in the second half of 2024.
According to a review by the Analytical Center "Dom.RF", the average rental price in Moscow was 111,000 rubles per month, in St. Petersburg - 56,000 rubles, and in other cities - 43,000 rubles.
Colife Invest told Izvestia that over the past year, rental housing prices have increased by 40% in cities with a population of over a million, including Moscow, and by 24% across the country. For example, the average monthly rent for a bed in the capital is 27,000 rubles. The cost of renting a separate room is about 48,000 rubles, and a one-room apartment is 85,000 rubles.