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Forecast: Retail lending market to cool by a third in Q4
In the fourth quarter, the volume of the retail lending market will decrease by 36%* compared to the same period last year, the volume of issuance will reach approximately 2.7 trillion rubles, and VTB expects a reduction in total market sales this year by more than 15%. - 13.5 trillion rubles.
The most noticeable decline in the fourth quarter is observed in mortgage loans. The issuance of mortgages on the market is reduced by half (-48%), to 1.2 trillion rubles. A decrease in sales volume to 1 trillion rubles (-33%) is also expected for cash loans. Only the car loan market will record a surplus (+12%): the volume of loans will amount to 527 billion rubles.
According to VTB forecasts, the total volume of loan sales for the first ten months of the current year will amount to approximately 11.7 trillion rubles, which is 14% lower than the amount from January to October last year.
This year, secured loan sales (mortgages and cars) will reach $7.5 trillion, once again exceeding cash loan sales (6 trillion). The volume of mortgage issuance will amount to 5.1 trillion rubles, which is almost 35% lower than the results of 2023. Demand for car loans will show positive dynamics this year (about +60%), and the volume of issuance in Russia may exceed a record 2.4 trillion rubles.
"The market continues to reduce the size of loans to individuals and transfer clients' funds to savings. The growth of interest rates and changes in mortgage programs against the backdrop of record offers for savings products create conditions for the so-called credit winter. We expect a decrease in demand for retail loans by more than 15% compared to last year's results and have not yet found prerequisites for a change in the situation at the beginning of next year," said Georgy Gorshkov.