All news
The car market has not moved forward with the ruble
Despite record sales in September, spending on new cars did not reach the 2024 peak. Costs are estimated at 475.7 billion rubles, which is less than the March level of 496 billion rubles. Analysts attribute this to a decrease in the share of the premium segment. Demand for premium cars will shift towards Chinese brands, and dealers expect sales in this segment to accelerate in 2025.
Spending on new cars in September amounted to RUB 475.7 billion, up 42% year-on-year and 6% compared to August, according to Avtostat calculations. However, despite the growth in sales, this figure was not reached in 2024. New car sales in September amounted to 158,800 units, up 36.7% year-on-year and 1.7% compared to August, reaching the highest level in about three and a half years. In monetary terms, the historically highest value of the car market was maintained in March, when RUB 496 billion was spent on new cars in Russia.
Avtostat attributes this to a change in the sales structure of mass-market cars. If in March the premium sector market share was 12.9%, then in September it was 9.3%.
As Avtostat correspondent Sergei Udalov explains, the difference from March is also connected with regulatory measures.
In anticipation of tightening the rules for importing cars to the Russian Federation, from April 1, underpayment of taxes and duties due to understating the customs value of cars imported from the EAEU countries began to be taken into account as part of the recycling fee. A number of premium cars were imported via parallel import. "The logistics costs are about the same, but if you buy a premium car, you earn more. So the market mainly consisted of expensive cars brought in via parallel import. Certain changes occurred during this period," he explains.
Compared to the summer months, the premium segment market share showed a slight increase according to Avtostat as follows: In July, it was estimated at 8.3%, in August – 8.6%, in September – 9.3%. Mr. Udalov explains the dynamics of increased demand before the increase in the recycling rate from October 1. Dmitry Babansky from SBS Consulting confirms this, adding that seasonal fluctuations also play a role. Usually, premium car sales decline in the summer and recover by the end of the year, he says.
Nikolai Ivanov, director of the new car sales department at Rolf, reported that demand for new premium cars fell by 20% in the first two weeks of October compared to September.
He explained: “This is due to increased demand: customers are actively purchasing warehouses at previous prices due to expectations of an increase in recycling collection in September.”
Renat Tyukteyev, Vice President of New Car Sales at Avilon AG, says that the overall decline in premium brands in the sales structure can only be seen with parallel imports - cars from European, Korean and Japanese manufacturers. He believes that this is due to the gradual erosion of these brands. In the structure of officially supplied brands, the premium share is growing slowly as buyers get used to this segment, and in 2025, growth will accelerate due to deferred demand, Mr. Tyukteyev believes. According to Avtostat, 77% of new premium car sales in September were Chinese brands. The top three market leaders are Exeed, Tank and Lixiang, while BMW is in fourth place.
Mr. Udalov predicts that premium cars of outdated brands supplied via parallel imports will gradually be replaced by Chinese brands. By the end of the year, the overall share of the premium segment may decrease slightly due to an increase in the collection of recyclable materials, but the expert is confident that the figure will not fall below 8.5%. “By the end of the year, we expect that sales in the premium segment will reach the October level,” says Nikolai Ivanov.