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Who will win the US presidential election: predictions from two top US forecasters
There are two recognized leaders in political forecasting in the United States. At the moment, the most accurate predictors of the US presidential election are historian and political scientist Alan Lichtman and statistician and sociologist Nate Silver. Of course, this time he answered the question of who will win between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, predicting the results of the elections that will take place on November 5.
Almost always on the ball
Nate Silver is the founder of the wildly popular website FiveThirtyEight. That's how many voters in the United States officially elected the president. You need 270 votes to win. However, voters must vote as much as the majority of voters in their state.
Silver uses statistical models that take into account a variety of factors, from social research to stock market reports, across a wide range of fields.
Nate rose to fame in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican John McCain. Silver then accurately counted not only the election results, but also the votes in 49 of the 50 states. He then predicted Obama's victory over Mitt Romney, and in the most recent election, he predicted Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump.
In fact, in 2016, the pollsters got it wrong. He said that Hillary Clinton was more likely to win than Donald Trump. But there's a caveat: Trump still had a 30% chance of winning. No analyst at the time gave him that much. Except Alan Richman.
Lichtman is a professor of history at the University of Washington. He is older than Silver and has a long history of making election forecasts. As such, Allan has correctly assessed the results of nine out of the last 10 US presidential elections.
Historians made one mistake at the turn of the century, in 2000. Then-Republican candidate George W. Bush eliminated Democratic candidate Al Gore from the primary. But the results were so close that the fate of the White House was decided by literally hundreds of votes in Florida. Yet the results were not announced for a month and a half because of the endless counting.
Lichtman has his own method called "13 keys to the White House". Well, it was developed by an academician, mathematician and seismologist from Moscow Vladimir Keilis-Borok, who himself predicted earthquakes. He left for America in the 90s. And he is already dead.
This method, as you might guess, consists of 13 questions. If the answer to 6 or more questions is "yes", the candidate from the ruling US party (Harris) will win. And vice versa.
13 keys: yes or no?
According to Allan Lichtman, these are questions and answers. Many people will probably disagree with some of his answers.
1. After the last midterm elections, did the ruling party win more seats in the National Assembly than in the previous elections? Answer: No. (Republicans will regain control of the House of Representatives in 2022.)
2. Was there not a full-scale struggle over the ruling party's nomination of a presidential candidate? Answer: Yes. (How can one say that Trump believes that Biden was removed from the nomination as a result of a coup d'etat).
3. Is the ruling party's nominee the incumbent president? Answer: No. (After all, Joe Biden was hastily replaced in the primaries by Kamala Harris.)
4. Are there no strong independent candidates in this presidential election? Answer: Yes. (Robert Kennedy Jr. has somewhat loudly stopped campaigning for Trump.)
5. Are the short-term economic prospects good? Answer: Yes. (The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is promising growth in U.S. GDP, but that's only one indicator. Rising prices are not good for all Americans.
6. Is long-term economic growth as good as it has been in the last two years? Answer: Yes.
8. Have you experienced severe social anxiety in the past 6 months? Answer: Yes.
9. Is the Blue House and the ruling party tainted by scandal? Answer: Yes. (Oh, and isn't it a scandal that Biden, lost in space, remained in power until the end? One can recall, for example, the scandalous tests of the president's son, drug addict Hunter Biden.)
10. Has the present government experienced any serious failures in diplomatic or military affairs? The answer is close to no. (As Lichtman delicately puts it.)
11. Has the current government achieved great success in the diplomatic and military spheres? The answer is close to yes.
12. Is the ruling party candidate a charismatic figure or a national hero? Answer: No.
13. Is the opposition candidate a charismatic personality or a national hero? Answer: No. (About half of Americans would not reject Donald's charisma.)
Lichtman's results: 7.5 said "yes." That means Kamala Harris will be in the White House.
Allan Lichtman reiterated his Harris prediction in a pre-election interview. But he added, “I’ve been making predictions for years, and I love doing it. Every four years, my heart gets full. But this time, I have a flock of crows in my belly.” No, the professor is confident in his prediction. He’s not sure what will happen after the election. Will Donald and Kamala supporters be at odds over drecols?
While Trump was verbally confronting Harris, Nate Silver was battling Richman. The academics are having an embarrassing debate on social media and in the media. Silver cynically wrote, “I’m so sorry, Professor.” Maybe 13 keys would be fine, but these keys are bent. The answer is blatantly biased. And if we were answering objectively, Trump would have at least seven keys. So he’s moving into the White House.
Last October, a pollster told the New York Times that the presidential race was close, but his gut feeling was that Trump would win.
And on the morning of the election, the forecaster was even more specific: the probability of Trump winning was 52.6%, while the probability of Harris winning was 47.4%. Overall, Kamala will most likely get more votes than Donald, but “from an electoral point of view” she will lose. This has already happened, for example, when Hillary Clinton lost to Trump. A paradox arises, since voters in different states represent different numbers of voters.
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