All news
How will the US elections be held and when will the winner be known?
On November 5, the US will hold presidential elections. What the candidates promise, how long the vote counting will last, and which states are the key battles — data from RBC
What will happen on General Election Day?
Since 1845, the U.S. presidential election has always been held on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. This year, it was November 5. Voting in the presidential election can be done in person at a polling station or by mail, and voting can be done on the day of the general election or in advance. Soldiers serving overseas also vote in advance.
There are two main candidates. They are former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump (78) and current Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris (60). President Joe Biden was originally expected to run in the Democratic primaries, but withdrew after failing to deliver a debate with Trump in June. • Continue military support for Ukraine and do not negotiate with Russia without Kyiv’s participation. • Nominate Republicans to positions in the next administration. • In times of high demand (such as during a hurricane), retailers “cut” their inflated prices for products. • End corporate tax breaks and increase the long-term capital gains tax to 28% for individuals earning more than $1 million a year. • Provide a down payment of up to $25,000 for first-time homebuyers and provide “more generous support” for first-time homebuyers. • Increase the start-up tax credit for new businesses from $5,000 to $50,000. • Raise the minimum wage and create paid family and sick leave. • Eliminate tip credits for service and hospitality workers. • Expand the child tax credit to $6,000 per child per year (currently $2,000). • Sign legislation guaranteeing abortion rights nationally, if proposed by Congress. • End the conflict in Ukraine before his inauguration (Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance has said the peace plan would end fighting along the entire line of contact and create a demilitarized zone and a non-aligned state in Ukraine.) • Mass deportation of immigrants living in the United States illegally (Vance has said the new administration could initially deport 1 million people). • Impose tariffs of 10-20% on all imports and raise tariffs on Chinese goods to more than 60%. • Reduce the tax rate on companies producing goods in the U.S. from 21% to 15%. • Eliminate tipping and social security taxes and eliminate double taxation for U.S. citizens living abroad. • Increases the child tax credit to $5,000 per year for each child.
Presidential elections in the United States are indirect. In practice, the head of state is not chosen by voters, but by state electors, who must usually vote according to voters' preferences (there are exceptions, however, and the states decide everything). There are 538 electors in total. This is based on the number of members of the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives. To win, one of the candidates must receive a majority or support of at least 270 people.
Most U.S. states and the District of Columbia have a winner-take-all rule, meaning that the candidate who wins the most votes in that state gets all the electoral votes. The exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, where only a portion of the electoral votes go to the statewide winner, with the rest distributed based on the results of each individual electoral district.
In this case, the so-called swing states are especially important, that is, those states where the positions of Democrats and Republicans are closest. This year, it includes Arizona (11 people), Georgia (16 people), Michigan (15 people), Nevada (6 people), Pennsylvania (19 people), North Carolina (16 people) and Wisconsin (10 people). Candidates will also fight for one elector in the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska. Winning swing states is crucial for candidates, especially in Pennsylvania. According to Hill analysts, the candidate who wins this state has an 85% chance of becoming the next US president.
According to ABC's FiveThirtyEight, excluding swing states and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, Trump relied solely on traditionally red and blue states to win 219 votes, while Kamala Harris won 225. The Electoral College vote will be held on December 17, and the U.S. Congress will meet on January 6 to count the Electoral College votes and certify the presidential election results.
The start time for voting varies by state. There are four time zones in the continental United States alone. Alaska and Hawaii also have their own time zones (GMT-8 and GMT-10). The first polling station in the United States will open at 5 a.m. local time in Vermont (12 p.m. Moscow time). In New York, voters can cast their ballots for the first time at 6 a.m., but most polling stations on the East Coast open at 7 a.m. West Coast voters will begin voting three hours later.
The first polls on the East Coast in Kentucky and Indiana will close by 3 p.m. Moscow time on November 6, and the last polls on the West Coast, including California, will close by 6 p.m. Alaska will close by 7 a.m., and Hawaii will close by 8 a.m. (The latter gives priority to mail-in ballots, meaning local election offices receive and process a significant portion of the ballots several days before Election Day).
The votes are counted by the local election commission in each electoral district (there are currently 3,143 in the United States) immediately after the polling station closes. In most cases (about 70%), voters fill out the ballots themselves. After opening the ballot boxes, election commission employees manually inspect them, including for damage.
For mail-in ballots, committee members must verify that the person voting is a registered voter, has already voted some other way, and that the signature on the envelope matches the signature in the database. The ballots are then counted using special scanners or by hand. Both Democratic and Republican observers are typically present at all stages of the process. Pennsylvania officials have said they will process all mail-in ballots shortly after polls close, but in Arizona, another swing state, it could take up to two weeks.
While it will take several weeks for 100% of the ballots to be counted, the winner of the election will be known much sooner. Often, their analysis allows the media to declare a victory for a particular candidate in a state even before the official authorities. Special staff (phone call) work with analysts to carefully study the numbers received from the field and analyze the records and rules of voting. State or local data, as well as exit poll data. However, this can take time. In 2020, the winner was announced just four days after the vote.
The presidential race may not be over even after the ballots are counted. Possible force majeure circumstances include a tie between Democrats and Republicans, in which neither candidate can reach the coveted 270 Electoral College votes. FiveThirtyEight presents four scenarios in which both candidates could get 269 votes. • Trump wins Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan, but also wins Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada. • Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, but loses the other four swing states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. • Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but loses the other states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. • Harris won the 2nd Congressional District in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nebraska, while Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
The portal estimates the probability of a tie at 1 in 300. If this happens, the winner of the presidential election will be determined by a vote in the House of Representatives, where Republicans still have a majority. However, since the votes of state delegations are taken into account, and not the votes of individual legislators, the winner is the politician who is supported by at least 26 states.
Moreover, it is highly likely that President Trump will not concede defeat and will seek a recount or non-certification. Politico predicted that he could pressure state and county officials to object to certification of the votes or to appoint new electors who would disrupt the certification process.
At a campaign rally in New York City on October 27, President Trump also hinted that he has a contingency plan in place if he loses. “I think we can win the Senate pretty easily, and given our little secret, I think we can win the House. Right?” Trump told House Speaker Mike Johnson. “Our little secret is going to make a big difference.” He and I have a secret. “I’ll tell you what he’s going to be wearing when the race is over.” Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman suggested that Trump could use the Republican-controlled House to stop the election results from being certified.