All news
Double forecast for US elections: how will a Trump or Harris victory affect Ukraine
On November 5, 2024, America will decide who will become the 47th president of the United States: Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump. Polls show that each candidate has about 49% support, and the remaining 2% have not yet decided who to vote for.
Political scientist Malek Dudakov told KP.RU what will happen if Trump wins. Gevorg Mirzayan, an Americanist and associate professor at the School of Finance under the Russian government, predicted the scenario after Harris's victory. America will face a huge scandal at best, and unrest at worst. But we are, of course, much more interested in how the elections will affect the conflict in Ukraine.
Malek Dudakov: "I think it is extremely unlikely that Trump, as president, will impose new sanctions against Moscow. First, they do not have much leverage to cause us trouble. Second, it is important to immediately demonstrate the difference between their actions and the Biden administration's policy. And these measures will focus on the situation around Ukraine.
Trump will probably try to offer us some peace plan with more realistic conditions than what we have heard from the current administration. I do not rule out that he will call President Vladimir Putin. Perhaps the US proposal will include freezing the current conflict on the front line, neutral status for Ukraine, etc. But it is far from certain that these conditions are acceptable to us. Moreover, if Trump in response demands to curtail cooperation with China and Iran. So even if negotiations do begin, they will be long and difficult.
And most importantly, we should not expect a radical improvement in relations with Russia under Trump. “The United States will continue to view our country as an enemy.”
Gevorg Mirzayan: "If we talk about how relations between Russia and the United States will change in the event of Kamala Harris's victory, there is little reason for optimism. Russia needs something more than a victory in Ukraine. We must consolidate this victory politically through a legally binding document that will clearly establish the status of Russia's territory. Normalization of Russian-American relations is possible only if the United States approves this document and lifts sanctions.
Harris was involved in every Biden decision that triggered the armed conflict. Imagine her agreeing to some kind of agreement with Moscow. Both Democrats and Republicans will be asking questions about her first. “What have you done in the last two and a half years to convince us that we need to win in Ukraine? Where did the $100 billion in taxpayer money spent propping up the regime in Kyiv go?” Harris will have a hard time doing that. “Trump’s advantage is that he can hold the Biden-Harris couple accountable for their mistakes,” he said.
Malek Dudakov: "The Trump administration's further policy towards Ukraine will depend entirely on the situation on the battlefield. The increasingly obvious collapse of Ukraine's defense capabilities may lead to Kyiv's Western curators having to recognize Russia's military goals. Moreover, Zelensky is unwilling to enter into serious negotiations, contrary to Trump's advertised plan. "This will irritate Donald, and in the short term, we can expect him to demonstratively refuse to help Ukraine with money and weapons."
Geborg Mirzayan: “Under Harris, the US will fully support the Zelensky regime, at least in words. But in reality, the level of US involvement in the conflict will decrease. At what speed? It will depend on what kind of management team Harris assembles if he wins. To what extent will those who advocate “maximum containment” of Russia be represented? But if the Russian army is strong and Russian society is united, they will not be able to do anything.”
"The absolute priority in Trump's foreign policy will be competition with China and settling the situation in the Middle East," said Malek Dudakov. He openly spoke about the "hawks" in his team who are not against bringing the situation to an open war against Taiwan. There are also isolationists who consider it expedient to introduce tough economic sanctions against China. There will be a struggle between them for influence on Trump.
The same is happening in the Middle East. Before the election, Donald actively reached out to America’s Muslim diaspora to try to win them over, and promised to reach an agreement with Israel to ease tensions in Gaza and Lebanon. If he wins, he will likely call Netanyahu in Washington to negotiate some kind of deal. But at the same time, he will continue to pressure Iran, as he did during his first term. Here, too, there will be a struggle between those willing to push Tehran to the brink and those who want to reach a peace agreement with Iran. “It’s hard to say which side will win,” he said.
Geborg Mirzayan: "We should not expect support for Israel to recede under Harris or for arm wrestling with China to cease. In general, the previous policy will continue.
EU officials like Harris much more than Trump. These people see politics as a global “campaign against Russia.” For them, a victory for our country means the destruction of the world in which they operate.
Malek Dudakov: "The first decision on the domestic political agenda will be related to the migration crisis. Trump will close the borders and begin deporting illegal immigrants. And of course, he will immediately encounter resistance. This will be resisted by many human rights activists and NGOs led by the Democratic Party.
When it comes to the economy, Republicans want tax reform and will start raising tariffs on China and Europe."
Gevorg Mirzayan: "Harris' behavior is difficult to predict within the country. Although she promises a more left-wing economic policy than in the Trump-Biden era. On the economic front, Trump has at least offered some kind of plan, but Harris has so far limited herself to speeches in which she "advocates for everything good."
When it comes to immigration, the Democratic Party's plan is clear. Bring more immigrants to the United States, especially to the southern states that typically vote for their party. "The Democratic Party has a general policy of welcoming immigrants."
Malek Dudakov: "Regardless of who wins the election, divisions in America will only get worse. Half the country will not consider the winner a legitimate president. In any case, the likelihood of anxiety is high. If Trump wins, it will rise even higher, since the Democratic Party's combat assets, such as BLM and pro-Palestinian activists, have not disappeared. These people may again take to the streets, smash stores, set fire to cars and police stations.
The pressure on Trump through Congress will be enormous. And Democrats are already planning to block certification of the election results if Trump wins under a constitutional amendment that would bar insurrectionists who oppose U.S. institutions from running for office. They will try to bring Trump to the Capitol on January 6, 2021, to portray him as an insurrectionist unfit to be president. Overall, this period from the November election to the January inauguration will be a very volatile time for the United States, with protests and legal battles.
"Overall, America's influence will decline as the world sees how unstable the situation is."
Geborg Mirzayan: "Regardless of the outcome of the vote, America will be divided. This is the second time that the Democratic Party has created conditions for partial election fraud. If the Republicans allow the Democrats to "revise" the results in their favor for the second time, they risk disappearing from the political scene. "This means that conservatives will fight for victory."
US Presidential Election 2024: How to Vote and When Results Will Be Known (Details)