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Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 17–18
The technical adjustment of the ruble exchange rate turned out to be short-lived, and the Russian currency came under pressure again. The decline in oil prices due to the stabilization of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is not favorable for the ruble. The scale of the central bank's sales of yuan is not enough to change the market sentiment, but it helps to soften the negative dynamics. The lack of reaction from the authorities to the weakening of the ruble for two and a half months makes a reversal of the local currency unlikely.
The forecast for the yuan exchange rate by the end of the week is 13.3-13.7 rubles, the over-the-counter dollar exchange rate is 94.5-97.5 rubles. The ruble may stabilize and make more frequent counterattacks, which should be facilitated by: Daily currency interventions for the upcoming reporting period (usually some companies begin preparing tax payments in advance, trying to fix a more comfortable exchange rate); The tight monetary policy of the central bank will likely be strengthened by another increase in interest rates next week. As a result, the following factors may prevent the ruble from strengthening: These include easing requirements for exporters to sell for proceeds, an increase in the budget deficit, and a reduction in the supply of foreign currency due to a change in the import and export components.
On Wednesday, the ruble hit its lowest since the beginning of the week, but has since begun to strengthen. However, there are no clear prerequisites for further strengthening of the ruble. On the contrary, the weak dynamics of the oil market, the structural deficit of the currency and budget factors are unfavorable for the ruble. As reported on Tuesday by the Bloomberg agency, the Russian authorities will not be able to prevent the weakening of the currency towards 100 rubles. This is due to the fact that every dollar can contribute to the execution of budget revenues. Thus, the markets are balancing the risk with the weakness of the ruble, which in the coming days may test weekly lows in the region of 97 rubles. 104 rubles per US dollar. euro and 13.60 rubles. For the Chinese yuan.
The reduction in foreign currency supplies by exporters continues to be in the spotlight amid current data on inflation in Russia in September against the ruble, which reached 0.48% compared to 0.20% in August. Markets expect a tightening of the current monetary policy by Russian regulators, which could support the ruble, and corresponding signals from the Central Bank are increasingly heard. Without a consistent stance by central banks, inflation would get out of control. The central bank's decision on interest rates at the meeting in October 2024 will be in the region of an increase to 20-22%. In the baseline scenario, the rate is expected to increase to 20%. The reduction in foreign currency supplies by exporters continues to be observed in terms of the ruble. The dollar and the euro have been growing against the ruble since the beginning of the week. The dollar's global positions are supported by fairly optimistic recent economic statistics from the United States.
Despite the adjustment in oil prices, there are no serious risks on the currency market. In the middle of the week, the yuan exchange rate lost its growth momentum and remained unchanged. The introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange did not significantly change the situation on the market. Volatility jumps in the over-the-counter sector are local in nature. Despite the adjustment in oil prices, there are no significant risks on the currency market. We expect the yuan exchange rate to remain at the bottom of the target range for October in the coming days (around 13.5-14 rubles). The transition to limits should most likely be expected in combination with more dramatic events on the oil market. Given the strengthening of the American currency's position on world markets (including the yuan) and the current shortage of domestic supplies, the dollar exchange rate looks stronger and may gradually approach 100 rubles.