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Market News | We expect inflation for October at 0.65% m/m and 8.4% y/y - that's about 8% mm saar, which would mean some slowdown compared to previous months - Bank CentroCredit
Inflation in October is expected to be 0.65% compared to the previous month, or an average of 8.4% for the year. This is about 8% saar, which means a slight slowdown compared to previous months. - Bank CentroCredit
According to Rosstat, from October 8 to 14, the consumer price index grew by 0.12% compared to growth of 0.14% and 0.19% in the previous two weeks. Growth in October was 0.26%, since the beginning of the year - 6.06%, the annual rate is 8.5%. Over the 41st week of the year, the consumer price index grew by 0.12%. This is close to the historical average (the average growth rate over the past 12 years was 0.13%).
Consumer price index growth for 3 weeks excluding cucumbers, tomatoes and airplanes: 0.14%, 0.13%, 0.14%.
October inflation is expected at 0.65% mm/8.4% y/y. This will be around 8% saar, a slight slowdown compared to previous months.
The current interest rate (19%) may rise slightly (20-21%) after October 25 to contain inflation. The price increases seen this autumn are less dramatic than a year ago. However, we still fear further shocks from falling oil prices and currencies above 100. The moment of truth may come closer to December, when it becomes clear whether South Africa will increase production and whether China's stimulus has worked.