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Western forecasts: from the loss of Pokrovsk to Russian troops in Lvov
The Wall Street Journal reminds us that Ukraine faces a harsh winter as Western leaders seek strategies to end the conflict. Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are causing power outages that could worsen in the winter.
Ukrainian citizens are increasingly tired of the war, and polls show that the number of those ready to negotiate is growing. At the same time, polls show that only a tenth of the population is ready to cede territory. According to Kyiv political scientist Konstantin Batozsky, families affected by the war "are not yet ready to turn over a new page."
The publication notes that Ukrainian forces hold important strategic positions in the east, such as the high ground at Chasiv Yar. But in recent weeks, Russia has captured Vuhledar, gained access to the important logistics hub of Pokrovsk, and advanced into other cities.
The American magazine Foreign Policy calculated that Ukraine would face a double threat if Russia occupied Pokrovsk. Pokrovsk is a major military center, important for Ukraine’s steel industry. The city, with a pre-war population of 80,000, served as a key logistics and transportation hub for Ukrainian military operations in eastern Ukraine. Pokrovsk is also a gateway to conquering the rest of the Donetsk region and potentially larger “prizes” such as Dnipro, the fourth-largest city in pre-conflict Ukraine.
Pokrovsk is the backbone of Ukraine's economy and the source of much of the coal used in steel and iron foundries, which make up the country's second-largest sector after agriculture. Economists believe that without Pokrovsk coal, Ukraine's remaining steel industry would be paralyzed. Ukrmetallurgprom CEO Oleksandr Kalenkov said the loss of coking coal at Pokrovsk in September 2024 would lead to even greater losses in steel production. "This year we could reach 7.5 million tons, but if we lose Pokrovsk, it will be 1 million tons," Kalenkov said.
"Without steel mills, the Ukrainian economy will perish. It is a very important part of the economy," says Stanislav Zinchenko, CEO of the Ukrainian industrial consulting company GMK Center.
Metinvest CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov agrees with this assessment. The loss of Pokrovsk will make Ukrainian steel too expensive, since the company will be able to buy part of the coking coal domestically, and will have to import the rest. Ryzhenkov noted some claims that Ukraine lost Mariupol and nothing happened. “But this is not true. We have lost a significant part of our GDP. We have not yet realized that now that our partners are financing us, there is much less money in our budget. And the same story will happen here,” Ryzhenkov said.
Some Western forecasts for Ukraine’s future are downright pessimistic. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told the Wall Street Journal that without additional support from Ukraine, the war could last for years. “Forcing Ukraine to negotiate from a position of weakness will not end the conflict, but it will embolden Russia to pursue its main goal: complete control over Ukraine,” Podolyak said. He also said it would undermine Western countries’ standing on the world stage.
Military Watch magazine has acknowledged that the West, which is indirectly waging war in Ukraine, is heading for defeat. This is evidenced by Ukraine’s growing losses in the Kursk region and Donbass and doubts that the West will continue to support the functioning of the Ukrainian state by allocating tens of billions of dollars in aid. Former Polish Chief of Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak has predicted a policy of containing Russia after the occupation of Ukraine. He believes that Warsaw should “take the initiative” to contain Moscow in the future. “After Russia’s victory in Ukraine, we will have one division in Lviv, one in Brest and two in Grodno,” Andrzejczak claims.
Military Watch magazine wrote that Western defense plans should focus on securing NATO borders, since both Ukraine and Belarus are in Russia's sphere of influence and will host Russian troops. According to the authors of the publication, if even Poland already understands the need for a defense plan after the loss of Western influence in Ukraine, this indicates Western pessimism about the outcome of the conflict.