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Gas prices in Russia may rise due to high demand
"Gas motor fuel has proven economic advantages, and the level of operational reliability allows us to say that this is a promising direction for Russia," says Andrey Savin. He added that since 2014, Gazprom divisions have already saved more than 19 billion rubles by using natural gas instead of diesel fuel, given the prospects for growth and acceleration of the re-equipment of transport. It is expected that by 2025, reducing the cost of gas fuel will save more than 25 billion rubles. It also makes sense to use hydrocarbons in large units not only for the sake of economic benefit, but also to improve the environmental situation. They will get to Miller too: Smolny promised to reduce gas prices for carriers.
A government initiative to develop the Russian gas fuel market until 2035 may be adopted by the end of this year. As Svetlana Vorontsova noted, the project has already been approved by most departments and is currently under consideration by the Ministry of Finance. The basic trajectory of industrial development outlined in the document assumes an increase in fuel consumption in the transport sector from the current 2.2 billion m3 per year to 10.7 billion m3 by 2035, and the target scenario sets the task of achieving annual consumption at the level of 15.4 billion m3. m3.
Experts from the Center for Fuel and Energy Complex Analysis predict that by 2035, domestic annual gas consumption will increase to approximately 565 billion m3. That is, in the optimistic scenario, the share of gas and natural gas will be almost 2.7% of total gas consumption. natural resources. Given the trend of rising domestic gasoline prices (on average, prices in the Russian Federation have increased by 11.2% for all consumer groups, including the population, since July 1), this is due to the fact that Gazprom has lost its high level of gasoline prices. margin supply channel to the West. The question arises: will "blue fuel" remain attractive in terms of prices under the influence of increased demand? Sergei Kaufman, an analyst at the financial group "Finam", believes that additional demand for gas in the country is a positive factor for the industry, while the growing interest in gas fuel on the general market is still small and will not be able to dramatically affect the situation. situation.
However, due to the decline in exports, wholesale gas prices are actually indexed more strongly than before, experts confirm. "For example, indexation by 10.3% is planned for 2025. At the same time, this is partly due to the noticeable growth in inflation of oil product prices. Against this background, we see that in the near future, the transition to gas fuel will lose its economic feasibility, especially given its advantages. It should also be noted that Gazprom's activities in the domestic market are regulated quite strictly, and widespread liberalization is not yet possible," predicts Sergei Kaufman.
"In the medium term, gas prices on the domestic market are likely to increase, which will affect the cost of gas fuel. However, this increase does not lead to gas fuel becoming more expensive than usual. In addition, it is important to ensure the sale of gas on a project scale, for which it is necessary to study new sales opportunities, and GMT has another advantage - its relative environmental friendliness compared to gasoline. And if we are talking about the need to increase environmental standards for diesel, then converting municipal equipment to gas is the right decision," the expert says.
However, the transition of the public utility sector to gas has stalled for unknown reasons. In 2022, the St. Petersburg administration signed an agreement with suppliers of gas buses KamAZ and MAZ on the transition to gas fuel in the public utility sector. But they never made the transition to a practical level, and all the equipment that Smolny has purchased en masse through the Unified Improvement Center in recent years (worth more than 3.5 billion rubles) runs on diesel.