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Are importers ready for a dollar at 100 rubles?
Is the importer ready to receive dollars for 100 rubles? Since the beginning of the fall, the ruble has weakened against the dollar by almost 10%.
The Central Bank rate exceeded 97 rubles. The figures on the Forex market are approximately the same. According to Bloomberg News, the Russian authorities do not plan to take measures to counteract the weakening of the ruble.
The Central Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate of the US dollar at 97.01 rubles on October 16. On September 3, the value of the American currency was 90 rubles. According to Bloomberg, Russian authorities may allow the ruble to fall to 100 per dollar in order to ease the pressure of sanctions.
Business FM asked Russian importers whether they are ready to accept a price of 100 rubles and what impact this will have on their business.
“Personally, I am ready for everything. An increase to 100 would increase the current rate by 5-7%, so, frankly speaking, this is far from the highest rate we have seen in the last 7-10 years. Therefore, there is nothing supernatural about this. Honestly, I am much more concerned about another issue. The growth of the dollar exchange rate will inevitably lead to an increase in inflation. This is due to the fact that goods coming from overseas, including from China, are somehow tied to the dollar exchange rate. As a result, the dollar exchange rate rises, prices rise, and inflation rises, which forces the central bank to raise interest rates even more. It would seem to be an endless circle of samsara. Of course, we are ready. We will receive supplies from China at new prices, and we will have to change the prices of our products and supplies accordingly. Where should I go? But I think that the initial strengthening of the ruble was due to the fact that there were problems with payment and a corresponding decrease in the need for foreign currency. Now some plans have appeared. It is not that payments to China have returned to normal, but they have begun nonetheless. “As a result, demand for foreign currency has recovered, and the ruble exchange rate has also weakened,” he said. “Unfortunately, this does not depend on us and we have to accept this fact. Naturally, since all products are sold in foreign currency, prices will rise. The reasons may be related to several factors. There is no exact information about the exact reason, but the price already seems terrible. On average, all suppliers have seen an increase of about 15%. Probably, about 10% of the total number are African countries, and the rest are stable at about 15%. “Morally, everyone would probably be ready to receive dollars for 100 rubles. This has already happened. How long it will take is another question. If this is a long-term policy, this will naturally be reflected in the price. What is happening is reflected in the price. For the September and October conditional halving, the 10% devaluation is already reflected in the price. I will not comment on what caused the devaluation of the ruble. But I will not mention how it is reflected. The prices for our logistics, transporting some goods from China, have increased by exactly 35% over the past 1.5 months. This is naturally included in the cost. "There is no way out of this."
In 2023, the dollar exceeded 100 rubles twice. Accordingly, the central bank significantly raised the base interest rate at an extraordinary meeting in August 2023. Then in October, the government tightened capital controls, requiring large exporters to repatriate 80% of their foreign exchange earnings and sell them for rubles on the domestic market.