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Israel has identified the subject and the punishable
Israel has decided that a retaliatory strike on Iran will only affect military facilities. This was reported by the Washington Post (WP) newspaper, citing sources. According to it, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured US President Joe Biden that Iran's nuclear and oil facilities would remain untouched. In exchange, the Biden administration handed over the THAAD missile defense system to Israel. But not everyone in Israel itself believes that such a deal is beneficial to the Jewish state.
Israel is preparing to respond to the October 1 missile attack, when Iran fired more than 180 missiles at the Jewish state. According to the Washington Post, Israel initially considered attacking Iran's nuclear and oil infrastructure, but Benjamin Netanyahu eventually told Joe Biden that Israel would only attack military targets.
In response, the White House decided to transfer the THAAD missile defense system to the Jewish state, the publication reports. This allows it to intercept ballistic missiles at a distance of 150 to 200 km. On October 15, the US Department of Defense announced that it had already deployed THAAD in Israel and sent about 100 American troops to Israel to service the system.
Following the Washington Post report, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office confirmed consultations with US leadership and said: "We are listening to the views of the US government, but the final decision will be made based on the needs of the Israeli people's security."
The Washington Post also reported that Joe Biden asked Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack civilian targets in Iran because of the upcoming US elections.
White House leaders are concerned that a direct conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic could hurt Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris's campaign, and that attacks on Iranian oil facilities could lead to a sharp rise in gasoline prices.
There is no doubt that such a scenario would result in a price spike. And Joe Biden saw this firsthand when he casually mentioned to reporters on October 3 that the US and Israel were discussing a possible attack on Iranian oil facilities. Immediately after his remarks, US crude oil prices rose by about 5%. Then Joe Biden was forced to make an urgent statement calling on Israel not to attack the oil facilities. "Israel has not yet decided what to do about the strike and is debating it. "If I were in that position, I would think about alternatives other than attacking the oil fields," he said.
Another reason the United States asked Israel to reconsider its goals was pressure from the Gulf states.
Earlier, Reuters reported that Iran had asked Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other regional Arab countries not to interfere and not to open their airspace to attacks by Israel. Tehran warned that otherwise the Gulf monarchy's oil facilities could become targets for regional Iranian proxy forces, sources told Reuters.
Gulf knows this is not just talk. Yemen’s Houthi rebels have carried out successful attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In September 2019, for example, Houthi drones neutralized two of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refineries in Abqaiq and Khurais. The attacks reduced the kingdom’s oil production from 9.8 million barrels per day to about 4.1 million barrels. That’s a loss of about 5% of global output.
Meanwhile, even if Israel does not attack Iran's nuclear and oil facilities, attacks on its military infrastructure could lead to an escalation of the situation in the region.
Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made it clear that continued Israeli attacks would be followed by a more destructive response from the Islamic Republic.
But such threats have no effect on Israel. On October 15, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel "will soon give us a response, and it will be precise and deadly." The Walla portal reported today that the Israeli government's security cabinet has already approved a plan for retaliatory measures against Iran. According to the publication, the military has already begun jamming GPS positioning systems near the Israeli Defense Ministry building and the General Staff building in Tel Aviv. All this is part of preparations for an escalation of the conflict with Iran.
At the same time, Israeli hawks are demanding that Benjamin Netanyahu not listen to the US and not attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. “If not now, then when,” former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote on social media. And Culture and Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu, a far-right Israeli politician who last November called for dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza, said on October 15 that his colleagues are pressuring Benjamin Netanyahu to show restraint and not bury Iran’s nuclear program forever.