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Cause of sharp warming in 2023 identified
Scientists from the University of Miami have determined that El Niño, not human-caused climate change, is the main cause of the sharp increase in global surface temperatures in 2023. The results were published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
The study found that El Niño, which is characterized by periodic increases in sea surface temperatures, is the main driver of extreme global temperature increases in 2023. The scientists found that the likelihood of a significant temperature increase increases by about 10% after a prolonged La Niña event occurs before an El Niño.
To test their hypothesis, the researchers created a climate model that excluded human influence on climate and showed that temperature spikes could occur even without human influence. The study found that almost all of the significant temperature increases were associated with the El Niño period that occurred in 2023.
Temperature anomalies have been particularly severe this year, with record temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in Europe and the Middle East. Ocean temperatures are also above normal, leading to extreme weather events such as severe storms and droughts in many regions.
The researchers stressed that their findings do not change the fact that human-caused climate change is driving long-term warming caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. To halt the long-term warming trend, net emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases must be reduced to zero.
It also says the interaction of short-term climate oscillations such as El Niño with anthropogenic warming will contribute to new record temperatures.