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Volodymyr Zelensky has now presented his "victory plan" to the European Council. Commentary by Georgy Bovt
Volodymyr Zelensky has now presented his "victory plan" to the Council of Europe. Commentary by Georgy Bovt
The reaction of European politicians and media to Volodymyr Zelensky's plans has been very limited so far. NATO Secretary General Rutte previously stated that the bloc is not yet ready to support the declared points of the victory plan. Georgy Bovt finds out why Zelensky continues to worsen the situation.
Volodymyr Zelensky presented his “victory plan” at a meeting of the European Council in Brussels. This happened just a day after he spoke about the plan in the Verkhovna Rada, making it the first public presentation of the plan. The plan includes five points, which Zelensky repeated in his speech in Brussels, emphasizing the benefits it will bring to Europe. Zelensky believes that the implementation of this plan can end the war with Russia in 2025 and allow Ukraine to emerge from the war “with strength” and subsequently become an important source of natural and human resources for Europe. To do this, Kyiv needs, among other things, an immediate invitation to join NATO, permission to use Western weapons for long-range strikes against Russia, and the deployment of a “deterrence package” on Ukrainian territory. How was this plan received in Europe?
Skepticism about the “victory plan” has dominated Western media since September, when Zelensky presented the Biden administration’s plan. It appears to be a series of requests, including an agreement to strike deep into Russia with long-range weapons. Here, however, Kyiv is being rebuffed. Among other things, Prime Minister Scholz confirmed that Ukraine will not receive German Taurus cruise missiles. There is no agreement among allies on when to join NATO, without waiting for the war to end. On the eve of the NATO defense ministers’ meeting, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Ukraine would become the bloc’s 33rd or 34th member, adding that “probably someone else will jump in front of it.” He also noted that NATO would take note of Kyiv’s plans and discuss them privately, but could not yet pledge support for all points. So far, no Western leader has given its full support to the plan.
In this situation, Zelensky decided to act, as is now fashionable in politics, “to make the situation worse.” During a meeting with President Trump last September, Zelensky reportedly said: “Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, or we will join NATO.” Now we choose NATO. “Because Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum.” But I don’t think he would dare say that to Biden.
The Budapest Memorandum of Understanding, signed but not ratified by Russia, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States in December 1994, provided security guarantees in exchange for the transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine in connection with Ukraine's accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Nuclear weapons left over from the Soviet Union. Includes territorial integrity. About a third of the Soviet nuclear arsenal remains in Ukraine, including silos, mobile launchers, strategic bombers, and warheads. There are 1,900 nuclear warheads and 2,500 tactical nuclear warheads. Kyiv did not actually have the launch codes for its strategic missiles. And at the time, Ukraine could not afford to maintain this arsenal, and Western pressure on Kyiv was great.
Now Zelensky is repeating the same theme as at the Munich Security Conference in February 2022. Shortly after, President Vladimir Putin mentioned Zelensky's speech as one of his arguments in his inaugural speech SVO. The topic of "nuclear blackmail" has already been covered in the media. Thus, the German newspaper Bild, citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, wrote that Ukraine could create nuclear weapons for use against the Russian Federation within a few weeks. And it is known that the North Korean authorities are seriously considering the possibility of restoring nuclear status. In Soviet times, Ukraine did develop a military-industrial complex. Suffice it to say that Yuzhmash, under the leadership of Leonid Kuchma, mass-produced short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles. In fact, Zelensky's office has already denied Bild's information, calling it "nonsense."
But Kyiv’s allies may see such pop-ups as pushing the boundaries of acceptable subjectivity. Moreover, the calls for help are growing louder. The Ukrainian leader recently gave his allies three months to accept his “winning plan.” Does he have the right to ask such tough questions? There could be a backlash.
Also on the subject of increased stakes, Zelensky repeated claims that he was preparing to send a contingent from North Korea to Ukraine at Moscow’s request. He had previously said that North Korean troops were already there. NATO’s denial did not include such information.
Zelensky's plan item regarding a specific "containment package" deployed in Ukraine can also be considered an "escalation game." It is known that specific details are contained in a secret annex. Some believe that this is about Ukraine developing its own ballistic missiles. And there are no restrictions on its use. It can also be assumed that Zelensky takes an example from Israel, which also shows that it does not always listen to Washington's advice. However, the United States has decided to deploy the THAAD system in Israel - a mobile ground-based anti-missile system designed to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. It is considered an addition to the Patriot system, but can protect a larger area and intercept targets at a distance of 150-200 km. It is controlled by the US military. However, it is unlikely that the United States will take such action in Ukraine at the moment.
Against this background, the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and now the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Valeriy Zaluzhny, speaking in London, said that Ukraine is in a protracted state of war. "This seems almost impossible." According to him, the war is entering a "positional" phase, which includes "static battles of attrition" that will allow Russia to restore its military power. Perhaps, if he had spoken in Brussels, his views would have received more support than Zelensky's views. But they do not know what to do with this in Brussels. And after some time, the West may realize that it has such a "Zelensky problem." A man who is always asking for something. Moreover, this threatens to return Ukraine to a nuclear state. They hint at any move on the part of Moscow.