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Rents are coming off their peak
After reaching a peak caused by a seasonal surge in demand, average rental prices for apartments in Russia's largest regional markets have begun to decline, falling by 1-2% per month. Analysts are recording a gradual decline in the activity of potential tenants and an increase in risks. This trend will continue until the beginning of next year, with the market expecting prices to fall by 5-10%.
In October, the average rental price of an apartment in 18 of Russia's largest regional markets (16 cities with a population of over one million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) was 33.5 thousand rubles. A three-room apartment per month was 48.6 thousand rubles, CIAN.Analytics calculated. Over the month, the values decreased by 1% and 2%, respectively. "The cycle of increasing rental rates that began in the first ten days of June is over," said CIAN.Analytics Director Alexey Popov.
Roman Zhukov, head of Yandex Arenda, said that in the first week of October, the average price of long-term apartment rentals in cities with a population of over a million was about 40 thousand rubles, down 2.1% over the month. No decline has been recorded in Etazhi yet. According to the company, prices for one-room apartments in the largest regional market have grown by 3% over the month, to 30,000 rubles. Every month. The price of a three-room apartment has grown by 3.5% to 33.1 thousand rubles. Every month.
According to CIAN.Analytics, the largest decrease in rental prices for one-room apartments per month was recorded in Samara. The indicator decreased by 7% to 28.8 thousand rubles. Every month. In Nizhny Novgorod, it decreased by 5% to 35.5 thousand rubles. Every month. At the same time, in Krasnoyarsk, according to Etazhi, its cost by September increased by almost 8% to 38.5 thousand rubles. Every month.
According to CIAN.Analytics, the average cost of a one-room apartment in Moscow is currently 71.4 thousand rubles. Every month. In September, this figure fell by 3%. Oksana Polyakova, deputy director of the apartment rental department at Inkom-Real Estate, says that the limited pool of the most popular budget offers has been reduced to an average cost. In fact, you can now rent: • A popular segment of studios priced at an average of 45-55 thousand rubles every month
According to her, owners are not yet ready to offer discounts in anticipation of price increases.
Market demand is already falling significantly. According to CIAN.Analytics, ad views have fallen by 19% over 30 days. This increases the impact. According to analysts, the number of available apartments on the platform has grown by 25% in a month. “This is one of the most noticeable increases in the last two years,” says Popov.
Experts believe that in addition to seasonal fluctuations, the market is affected by the influx of apartments that were previously rented out on a daily basis into the long-term rental sector and a decrease in demand for plots that have not yet gone on sale.
Olga Pavlinova has noticed a 20-25% decrease in renter activity each month. But she believes that supply will begin to actively recover in the second half of October. Roman Zhukov draws attention to the fact that the new trend of reducing average prices for rented apartments has not yet manifested itself intensively, so owners are still in a winning position. According to experts, in the first week of October, the exposure of one-room apartments in cities with a population of over a million was 15% compared to September, one-room apartments - 12.3%, two-room apartments - 8.3%. and three-room apartments - 3.6%.
Konstantin Kamenev, head of long-term rentals at Avito Real Estate, explains that the number of rental listings on the platform has grown by 19% compared to last month and by 33% compared to last year. In these conditions, it makes sense for landlords to focus on finding the most suitable tenants and fixing rates.
Alexey Popov expects rental prices to continue to fall slowly. With more supply, tenants can feel more confident in negotiations with landlords.
Experts note that the rental market is largely tied to wages in large cities. Over the past four months, the average price of a one-room apartment in the largest regional markets has grown by 22%, exceeding the dynamics of income and inflation, he says. Mr. Popov considers last month's maximum to be the upper limit. Ms. Pavlinova also expects a slight decline in average prices by 5-7% by the end of the year due to a recovery in supply.
Roman Zhukov calls the decline before the New Year holidays a natural seasonal factor. Oksana Polyakova does not rule out a scenario in which the average cost of housing in Moscow will decrease by 5-10%. Experts assume that this will become clearer only at the beginning of next year.