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How long will the ruble fall?
Most experts agree that the limit of 100 rubles per dollar will soon be overcome.
On October 11, for the first time in a year, the official exchange rate of the American currency exceeded 97 rubles. The Central Bank rate on this day was 97.24 rubles. The last time the dollar exceeded this level was on October 20, 2023. Then it cost 97.31 rubles. Of course, the euro rate rose along with the dollar rate.
Let me remind you that on June 12 this year, the Moscow Exchange blocked US sanctions. Dollar trading on stock exchanges was stopped. Accordingly, the Bank of Russia now sets the dollar exchange rate based on data on banking operations and over-the-counter digital platforms.
It is worth noting that the dollar rebounded to 95.3 rubles at over-the-counter trading on October 11. However, this does not change the stable trend of the previous month. The ruble continues to weaken due to the growth of the dollar, euro and yuan.
Many analysts agree that the reason for the current decline in the ruble exchange rate is the growing share of ruble settlements in foreign trade, which has already exceeded 40%. If you are surprised, I will try to explain.
The dollar, euro and yuan are the same commodity in our economy. Its value is determined by the balance of supply and demand. The currency is sold mainly by exporters of Russian products who need to convert part of their revenue into rubles (for example, to pay taxes). And it is purchased mainly by importers who bring various products into the country. Financial institutions and individuals can also earn money due to the difference in interest rates.
In March of this year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that more than 90% of settlements between Russia and China in the oil and gas industry are carried out in their currencies - rubles and yuan. At the same time, Russian importing companies continue to purchase goods such as equipment, components and pharmaceuticals from the European Union and the United States. For example, according to data from the Higher School of Economics, conducted in the spring of 2024, 43% of executives of large companies said that their production is highly dependent on imported equipment. And supplies continue. In relation to sanctioned goods, this occurs through gray schemes and third countries. But in any case, sellers of these goods do not need rubles and yuan, but only dollars and euros.
To stabilize the ruble exchange rate, the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance traditionally use such tools as selling foreign currency from reserves. Theoretically, a decrease in net sales of foreign currency contributes to the weakening of the ruble against other currencies. And vice versa, when sales increase, the ruble strengthens. Starting next week, the central bank plans to significantly increase currency sales. But there is an important nuance. Currently, the central bank and the Treasury are selling only yuan. Therefore, at the moment, economists believe that it is difficult to say to what extent the increase in sales will be able to stabilize the ruble exchange rate.
An important question is whether economic authorities really need to stabilize exchange rates. One way to get more rubles from oil and gas revenues into the budget is to “lower” the national currency rate. At a rate of 70-80 rubles per dollar, a million dollars received from the budget turned into 70-80 million rubles, and now they are converted into 97 million rubles. That is why most analysts cautiously note that the psychological mark of 100 rubles per dollar will soon be overcome.
Read on the portal "MOI!" how the situation with the ruble and dollar will soon affect the economy.