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Final layouts before the US elections
On the eve of voting day, not a single presidential candidate showed up.
Equity analysts expect a victory for President Trump to strengthen the dollar and boost inflation, while a victory for Prime Minister Harris will weaken the US dollar. The market is already reacting to bookmakers' bets on the Republican Party.
On Tuesday, November 5, Americans will elect the 47th president of the United States. According to various opinion polls conducted the day before the vote, candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a close race with a 1 percentage point advantage. The combined results give them an equal chance.
American media outlets announce the results of national opinion polls ahead of the decisive election day. The final counts by NBC and the New York Post show that 49% of voters would vote for Harris and Trump, with the remaining 2% undecided. Aggregators RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight show the gap between the candidates within the margin of statistical error (less than 1%).
Of course, it must be taken into account that each state has a different number of voters, so a direct poll of voters does not reflect the real situation. But the results, aggregated across the entire state, show parity.
The US election is a huge international show. The Economist is currently publishing a list of preferences from citizens of 36 countries. 45% of respondents preferred Harris, and 33% preferred Trump. But bookmakers supported the Republicans. In Russia and the US, there are no bets on political outcomes, only on sports, but in the EU and the UK there are no such restrictions.
The average odds on Trump from major bookmakers, including William Hill and Betfair, are 1.5-1.6. That means you can win between 50 and 60 cents for every dollar you bet. Harris’s odds are much worse, at 2.3-2.4. Late last week, bookmakers adjusted their forecasts and cut Trump’s chances of winning from 65% to 54%. And the market reacted sharply to this move, says Business FM stock market analyst Grigory Beglaryan.
In the Democratic nominee, American voters see a return to middle-class protections and robust abortion rights. Republicans have a sober assessment of economic problems and the rising cost of living. Trump’s opponents look to his past and highly contentious presidency, while Harris’s opponents point to his current record and, overall, his lackluster vice presidency.
There have been many cases where candidates have been pitted against each other until the very end. But the current American election process is truly remarkable in this regard, says Nina Khrushcheva, a political scientist and professor at the New School in New York.
As of Monday evening, November 4, nearly 80 million Americans had voted early, according to the University of Florida’s Election Processes Lab. Those who went to the polls in person and those who voted by mail were split roughly evenly. Kamala Harris visited the battleground state of Michigan after the campaign trail ended, and Donald Trump returned to the key states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Since there is no day of silence in America, campaigning continues until the last minute. The votes could take days to count, and in the spirit of The Greatest Show on Earth, the percentages will be displayed online on the main scoreboard in New York City’s Times Square.
If Trump is elected, aid to Ukraine could be suddenly cut off. This is what Politico writes about European diplomats. French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad called on European countries to continue supporting Ukraine if the US decides to suspend it. Also, take care of your own defense capabilities. “We cannot let Wisconsin voters decide about European security,” he said.