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"There is a general disbelief that the conflict will escalate into a nuclear war."
The Russian authorities bear sole responsibility for the use of nuclear weapons, and few in China believe that adjusting Russia's nuclear doctrine will definitely open up the possibility for Moscow to use nuclear weapons. This opinion was expressed to Kommersant correspondent Natalia Portyakova by Liu Jun, director of the Center for Russian Studies at the East China Pedagogical Institute, on the sidelines of a Russian-Chinese conference being held this week by the Valdai International Debate Club.
— Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced changes to his nuclear doctrine. The list of scenarios in which Russia could use nuclear weapons is expanding. How did China react to this move?
— I think that since the conflict (between Russia and Ukraine — Komersand) began, people around the world have started to actively talk about nuclear issues. But in general, there seems to be widespread disbelief that this conflict will lead to a nuclear war. Many journalists in China have asked me the same question as you. My answer to this is that the Russian government is very responsible, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is a very rational person. And while ordinary people take this issue simply, he, on the contrary, looks very deeply and carefully at issues related to nuclear weapons. Yes, he has adjusted the doctrine, but this does not mean that nuclear weapons will be used.
— So does China really not accept the idea that Russia might use nuclear weapons under certain circumstances?
"Very few people in China are interested in this topic. Most Chinese believe that the Russian government is very responsible and do not believe that Russia would use nuclear weapons. Therefore, the changes (in the Russian nuclear doctrine. - Kommersant) did not cause much concern in China. Rather, it was perceived as another verbal reminder that Russia is, after all, a nuclear power.
— The West, led by the United States, is now actively confronting China, including its neighbors, primarily Japan and South Korea. The possibility of conflict over Taiwan is growing, and discussions about creating an “Asian NATO” are intensifying. What changes is China seeking to make to its security and defense potential as a result of this?
— The deterioration of relations between China and the United States is a fundamental point of this confrontation. China's relations with other Western countries are generally developing in a fairly normal direction.
The situation around Taiwan has been tightened compared to the past, when tensions on the U.S. side increased after Chinese naval exercises. But even here, especially in the military sphere, the main thing is not the conflict on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, but the behind-the-scenes actions of a third party – the U.S.
At present, China is actually strengthening its defense capabilities to prepare for potential military action. And the main goal of this path is technological modernization, improving the quality of weapons and the quality of the army with the help of technology. Although the Chinese government is increasing its investment in defense, the number of its troops remains the same.
I would like to point out that at this stage we are counting on a peaceful resolution of the conflict around Taiwan, but in extreme cases we are ready to resort to military methods. Our main goal is to modernize the country by 2050, by the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. And how can we agree to this if the Taiwan issue and the issues of unification are not resolved by that time?!
— In the West, China is often accused of trying, firstly, to separate Europe from the US and, secondly, to undermine unity within the European Union by bypassing Brussels and cooperating with individual countries. Do you have the feeling that the West is trying to provoke a split between Russia and China?
— There is a reason why I asked this question. We have never seen the West as a whole. The West is not homogeneous. And even before the Ukrainian conflict, we saw deep contradictions between the two coasts of the Atlantic.
Now there is a feeling that America's alliance system has deepened, and this only happened after the events in Ukraine in 2022. But China did not believe that Europe wanted to remain dependent on the United States forever. After World War II, Europe had a long period of development and needed strategic independence. So I think the current situation is temporary. In fact, the United States also has its own interests, and Europe also has its own interests. It may seem that China is trying to drive a wedge between them, but this seems superficial.
The United States has the ability to play on the deterioration of the situation between Russia and China, but Europe does not have this ability. Even during the Cold War, the United States created a rift between China and the Soviet Union, and for a while we drifted apart. But this was not because of America, but because of our own quantum contradictions. America can no longer divide us. China and Russia are not allies, but we have normal bilateral relations. There are contradictions and problems, but they can be resolved independently.
— There is an unofficial opinion that the rapid development of relations between Russia and North Korea (in particular, the Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement) has irritated Beijing. Is China really concerned about the deepening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang? Ultimately, it actually strengthens North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sense of independence from China.
"I have not heard any active complaints about this in China. Russia and North Korea have every right to develop bilateral relations.