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Forecast for key rate in Russia for three years has increased
The forecast for the base interest rate in Russia for the next three years has increased
The average base interest rate at the end of the year is expected to be 17.3%, and in the fourth quarter separately - 20%. This is the median estimate of analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia, whose updated macro forecast was published on the regulator's website.
Compared with the previous study, analysts' expectations regarding the largest Russian banks and investment companies increased over the entire forecast period, that is, from 2024 to 2027.
It is expected to average 18% per year in 2025 (16.1% in September), and will only fall below 10% in 2027 (9%). At the same time, the inflation forecast was revised to 7.7% in 2024, compared with 7.3%, which was mentioned by survey participants in September.
In terms of the national currency, the average dollar exchange rate in 2025 is expected to be 95 rubles (previously 94.4 rubles), in 2026 - 97.5 rubles (96.4 rubles), in 2027 - 99.7 rubles (98.9 rubles).
This morning, October 16, the central bank reported that monthly inflation in September accelerated compared to August. Earlier, the regulator's analysts indicated that the observed dynamics may require a tightening of monetary policy.