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The heat will continue. Climatologist explains the reasons for the abnormal summer of 2023
— Because it's warming, there will be more heat waves, and there will be more of them, with or without El Niño. Climate scientists explained that this was a direct result of warming.
Earlier, researchers from the University of Miami shared their findings on the 2023 heat wave. They calculated that on average, the Earth warmed by 0.29 degrees Celsius, which is a record for observations over the past half-century. The last time this happened was in 1976-1977. According to climatologists, this phenomenon was caused by the periodic El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which repeats every few years.
This is the movement of water masses along the equator from Eurasia towards South America. Usually, the water moves in the opposite direction, causing cooler, nutrient-rich waters to rise into deeper waters off the coast of Chile and Peru. During El Niño, warm air masses reach Latin American countries and heavy rains begin. Locals have given the phenomenon of El Niño a nickname. In the Spanish-speaking world, it is called the Christ Child, as the phenomenon often begins before Christmas.
Climate scientists have found that El Niño can lead to some warming across much of the planet. But the interesting thing is that scientists believe that the extreme weather of 2023 has nothing to do with global warming. They believe that it was just the natural process of changing ocean movements that was at work. At the same time, we believe that the summer of 2023 will be just as hot without anthropogenic emissions into the atmosphere.
Vladimir Semenov expressed his conviction that global warming inevitably affects Pacific processes and strengthens El Niño.
"The intensity of El Niño is influenced by two processes: the amount of warm water in the western Pacific Ocean and the temperature gradient between west and east. Both are intensified by global warming," said the RAS scientist.
The climate scientist added that two scenarios are currently being considered for further changes in the Pacific Ocean. According to some forecasts, the situation is moving towards the establishment of a permanent but never-ending moderate El Niño. The second scenario further assumes that the continental United States will experience periods of intense heat from time to time.