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Details of Israel's Strike on Iran: US Air Tankers to Support F-35I ADIR
Israel has not yet decided whether to retaliate against Iran, Bloomberg News reported on October 11. According to the agency, a meeting of the Israeli Security Cabinet on Thursday ended without a decision on how to respond. And it is not yet clear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is at odds or is biding its time.
The topic of possible Israeli attacks on Iranian military facilities remains one of the most important topics in the world media. Tel Aviv's revenge campaign is also actively discussed in the expert community. But all such conclusions contain too many uncertain elements.
Israel has now declared its goal to retaliate by destroying important military and industrial facilities in Iran. In fact, the question remains unanswered: Will Tel Aviv attack the Islamic Republic's nuclear industry?
Since the late 1970s, Israel’s military and political leadership has consciously opposed all attempts by Arab countries to build their own nuclear facilities. The first blow was the Israeli Air Force’s airstrike on the Iraqi nuclear power plant in 1981. A series of further actions followed. Moreover, in the 2000s, Tel Aviv allegedly succeeded in destroying some nuclear facilities in Syria, located near Deir ez-Zor.
In addition to purely military actions, Israeli intelligence has repeatedly carried out covert operations against nuclear scientists collaborating with Arab countries. The covert front has proven less effective for Israel than the destruction of a potential enemy's nuclear facilities.
But Tehran has been a tough nut to crack for Tel Aviv until recently. Although Iran has officially declared that it is not building nuclear weapons, it builds all nuclear industrial facilities with maximum security measures. And detonating a bomb is not easy.
In these circumstances, the military and political leadership of Israel understands that it is impossible to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities first. However, in this case, a process of serious escalation of the conflict begins. Iran will quickly regain everything it has lost and inflict an even greater blow on Israel.
Another factor that is extremely irritating to Israel is Iran's missile program. In recent years, Tehran has become one of the world's leading producers of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and attack drones. All of these products often pass through Israel, and the missile defense system is not always able to cope with them.
However, as with nuclear production, Iran's missile clusters were built with maximum protection requirements. Industrial facilities are scattered throughout the country and even hidden in underground bunkers. Conventional concrete-piercing bombs are not suitable for destroying the latter. Special ammunition, the so-called bunker buster, is required.
It is also important to understand how large-scale the IDF campaign against Iran will be. The country's military and political leadership is very firm. And it has stated that it will continue to work until all its goals are fully achieved. And Tel Aviv's position here is quite easy to understand. It will take more than one day of a large-scale attack to cause significant damage to Iran's nuclear and missile industrial facilities.
Another important factor is that the Israeli Air Force will have to operate in the airspace of Syria and Iraq to strike Iranian territory. And these countries are close allies of Tehran. And if the Syrians and Iraqis miss the first airstrikes, then later they will begin to actively use the IDF. The Israeli command will have to use serious forces to suppress the air defense of these countries.
Thus, despite the statements of Israeli politicians, it can be said that the operation will most likely be quick. In a short period of time, the IDF will have to inflict maximum damage on Iran. So what are Tel Aviv's goals? And there is only one answer. It is the destruction of the top leadership of the Islamic Republic.
Iran has two branches of government: the secular government, represented by the president, and the clerical government, represented by the Ayatollah. The religious power dominates the country. It is no surprise that Iran's official name is the Islamic Republic.
In this situation, it is advantageous for Israel to attack Ayatollah Khamenei. And to take him out of the game in the first hours of the conflict. In this case, Tel Aviv can expect paralysis of Iran's power. And this allows them to carry out large-scale attacks on military and industrial facilities.
At first glance, Israel's attempt to attack the most important figure in Iran seems quite utopian. But Tel Aviv has several trump cards. These are the secret services and the sabotage unit.
Since the early 2000s, Israel has carried out a number of special operations on the territory of the Islamic Republic. Initially, their target was key personnel of the nuclear program. They were poisoned and blown up by cars... One Iranian nuclear engineer was killed by a remote-controlled turret.
It is enough to remember that the former head of Iran's security service recently declared that he had managed to eliminate all Israeli intelligence services in the republic. But a few days later, the Hamas leader was killed in a suburb of Tehran. This attack was carried out using guided anti-tank missiles.
Tel Aviv has achieved even more impressive successes in operations against Hezbollah. First, explosive pager attacks paralyzed the movement's leadership, and then the IDF's systematic airstrikes brought down virtually the entire top ranks of Hezbollah.
Another ace up Benjamin Netanyahu’s sleeve is the latest F-35I ADIR fighter jet. This aircraft has been specially adapted for stealth and precision strikes. The threat posed by Israeli Penguins (called F-35s by Western militaries due to their unsightly appearance) is also recognized in Tehran. It is no surprise that most of the ballistic missiles during Iran’s recent attacks on Israel have targeted air bases and hangars where the ADIR is based.
Let's simulate a possible Israeli attack. The first step will be some special mission. It will mainly target Iran's religious leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei. It is difficult to predict how this will turn out. As experience shows, Tel Aviv is distinguished by its originality and knows how to unpleasantly surprise.
The F-35I will also be deployed in conjunction with special operations. Their target will also be the spiritual leaders of the Islamic Republic, people who will be out of reach for Israeli saboteurs.
This should not take more than a day. In the next stage, the Israeli Air Force plans to carry out large-scale strikes against Iran's nuclear and missile industrial sites. This stage takes about 2-3 days. And it will require the IDF to accept the maximum number of attack aircraft.
The bottleneck in this operation remains US support. At the same time, to maintain the army of fighter aircraft in the air, Israel needs a fleet of aerial tankers. But the Israeli Air Force clearly does not have this.
And here only the US can help Tel Aviv. They can quickly deploy such machines in this area. There is information that several American air tankers have already moved to Israel.
In two or three days, the paralysis of Iran's power will pass. And the Republic will be ready for an armed response. Therefore, Israel must bring back all its troops and be ready to repel retaliatory attacks.
In theory, a decisive air strike involving hundreds of combat aircraft could cause irreparable damage to Iran's nuclear and missile industries. But there are many variables.
Thus, the Iranian air defense can be put into an autonomous mode, in which each anti-aircraft system can hit any available target without any orders from above. In addition, the effectiveness of Iranian anti-aircraft systems can be high enough to cause losses to the Israeli Air Force.
Benjamin Netanyahu clearly sees all the risks of attacking Iran. That is why his cabinet, despite loud statements, is in no hurry to start military action. And soon we will find out how events will develop.