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Market mortgages are now above 25%, deposit rates are rising to 21-22%, the coal industry is on the verge of bankruptcy, oil prices have risen by 24%, and the rally in gold continues!
Market mortgages are now over 25%, deposit rates have risen to 21-22%, the coal industry is on the verge of bankruptcy, oil prices have risen by 24%, and gold prices continue to rise!
We analyze the most important news from financial markets and the economy over the past week.
In addition to stock market reviews, forecasts and useful educational materials, every week we select from hundreds of news items the most important and interesting news in the field of economics and finance for the past week and compile them into summaries with brief explanations.
— VTB raised interest rates on ruble savings products to 21% for three or 12 months, to 22% for six months, and to 28% on long-term savings program deposits. Sberbank also raised interest rates on deposits to 21%. — Still, this is a good profit.
— The average market interest rate on mortgages has exceeded 25%. Transcapitalbank - up to 27.75%, Sovcombank - up to 25.99%, VTB - up to 26-26.7%. - Unfortunately, this is not the limit.
— Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev ordered to stabilize food prices within two weeks. — Wow, it turns out that price stability is easy!
— By the end of the year, prices for new cars in Russia will grow by another 10%. In October, ROAD reported that prices had already grown by 2–5 percent due to increased garbage collection. — An increase in the interest rate in December seems inevitable.
— Mikhail Matovnikov, a senior analyst at Sberbank, expects the central bank to raise interest rates to 23% in December and continue to raise them in 2025. — I think I agree.
— To comfortably pay a market mortgage for a studio apartment, Muscovites need to earn more than 346 thousand rubles a month. Parameters: rate 25%, term 25 years, down payment 30%, payments should not exceed 50-60% of income. — And the average salary in Moscow is now about 2-3 times less.
— In September, Russians issued 4.73 million loans worth ₽1.21 trillion. The number of issues fell by 21%, and the trading volume fell by 41%. — but strict PrEP still works.
— Falling prices have put the coal industry on the brink of bankruptcy in 2024, while pre-tax losses could reach 34 billion rubles compared to profits in 2022 (783 billion rubles) and 2023 (357 billion rubles). The Ministry of Energy is preparing anti-crisis measures. — Do banking analysts still recommend buying coal shares?
- On average, butter prices in the Russian Federation have increased by 24% compared to last year, and by 65% in the Arkhangelsk Region. In September, the retail price of the product increased by 5.1%. Since October, the Russian Federation began importing oil from the UAE and Turkey, having imported 112.3 thousand tons in total over the year (+9% y/y). - Oil in the UAE? It is obvious that there is a real problem with oil production.
— Yandex MKPAO sales in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 36% compared to the same period last year, and adjusted net profit increased by 2.2 times. Financial results include some results of Yandex NV from the Netherlands. However, in the case of Yandex shares, if the level of 3,600 rubles is maintained, they may rebound to 3,900 rubles.
— Headhunter shares rose almost 10% to 4,500 ₽ after the dividend payment announcement (estimated at 907 ₽ per share for the first nine months of 2024). - But they soared to 4,200 ₽.
— Investments in gold funds reached $3.2 billion last week. — Kommersant. Gold prices exceeded $2,800 per ounce for the first time. — I think the gold rally is coming to an end.
— According to RBC, as of October 1, the Russian creditworthiness index fell to 1.51 points, the lowest level since mid-2020. At the end of August, about 6.2 million unsecured loan agreements remained overdue. — I think there will be more delays.
— On October 30, Sberbank and VTB announced that they were stopping issuing loans under the family mortgage program due to the limit being exhausted. An additional 350 billion rubles have now been allocated for the family mortgage program, and the process of distributing this limit has begun. — By the way, Sberbank took 66.8% of the redistribution limit.
— Rental rates have reached their peak. Moscow — 111,000 ₽, St. Petersburg — 56,000 ₽, a 70% increase over two years. — Currently, rent is still cheaper than a mortgage.
— The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy has prepared a draft resolution on increasing the cost of recycling agricultural machinery fivefold by 2025. We plan to index at an annual rate of 15% by 2030. - again contributing to the acceleration of inflation.
— The yield of the Moscow Exchange corporate bond index RUCBCPNS has been updated to a maximum of 23.96%. - And this is not the limit either.
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