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"The World from the Bottom Up"
From November 4 to 7, Sochi will host the 21st annual meeting of the Valdai International Debate Club, which will traditionally be attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The main theme of this year's forum sounds very optimistic. "A Lasting Peace - What Is It Based On? " "The 21st Century Requires Universal Security and Equal Opportunities for Development." The opening ceremony of the event will feature a presentation of a report by leading Valdai experts, "The World Below: Masterpieces of Eurasian Architecture." Kommersant learned about this document in advance, and its content turned out to be surprisingly optimistic.
The goal of this year's Valdai Conference, which will bring together 140 participants from 50 countries, is "to offer non-Western ideas for solving global problems and to make it clear that leading industrialized countries do not have a monopoly on formulating goals and methods." . Development." According to the event's organizers, "world architecture is moving toward a polycentric structure, but the world is not disintegrating into components and is not losing its integrity." approaches and ideas not only from Western countries, but from the entire world. This means finding solutions based on a combination," the conference announcement says. As promised, the discussions will cover all key global topics - from ecology and inequality to artificial intelligence. and ways to resolve conflicts.
On November 7, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to speak at Valdai. In addition, the event will be attended by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin and presidential adviser Ruslan Edelgeriev.
As for foreign guests, as in the last two years, there will be significantly more non-Western participants in Sochi, for which the organizers have found an elegant explanation.
"The national balance between the representatives of the Southern Hemisphere and the Western participants, which first appeared after the Ukrainian special operation, remains at the same level. As in real life, the South continues to dominate the conference."
The expected number of participants from "Western" countries at this conference is 22. The rest are from Southeast Asian countries (24 people), the Middle East and Maghreb (18 people), and Central Asian and CIS countries (14 people). Eight representatives from Africa and three from Latin America have confirmed their participation.
Остальные — российские специалисты. Среди них председатель ИМЭМО РАН Александр Дынкин; Сергей Караганов, научный руководитель факультета мировой экономики и международной политики Высшей школы экономики Национального исследовательского университета; академик РАН, научный руководитель Института востоковедения Виталий Наумкин РАН; заместитель председателя совета директоров Евразийского банка развития Тигран Саргсян; Шерпа Российской Федерации от проректора НИУ ВШЭ «Женщины 20 лет (W20)» Виктории Пановой; Ирина Абрамова, директор Института Африки РАН; Анастасия Лихачева, декан факультета мировой экономики и международной политики Высшей школы экономики Национального исследовательского университета; Председатель совета директоров Фонда развития и поддержки Международного дебатного клуба «Валдай» Андрей Быстрицкий.
В первый день форума ведущие Валдайские эксперты Федор Лукьянов, научный руководитель клуба (также журнала «Россия в глобальной политике», СВОП и ВШЭ) и программные директора Олег Барабанов (МГИМО РАН), Тимофей Бордачев (Высшая школа Экономика) и Андрей Сушенцов (МГИМО)) и Иван Тимофеев (РСМД).
Авторы доклада считают, что главной особенностью этого года является "привыкание к тому, что не предопределено". По их мнению, старый мировой порядок больше не функционирует, и неизвестно, каким будет новый порядок и возникнет ли он. «Прежние подходы к установлению глобального баланса, будь то мирным или военным путем, не работают, и в государственном арсенале не появилось никаких принципиально новых инструментов. Вы должны использовать то, что имеете, но используйте этот набор в соответствии с меняющимися условиями. Это требует переосмысления того, что происходит сейчас, и отказа от стереотипов, определявших наше мышление в предыдущие эпохи», — объясняют эксперты.
Они осторожно пишут о возможных будущих мирах, не делая явных предсказаний.
Как отмечается в обзоре, новые правила игры возникают из-за изменения баланса сил, которое в современное время является результатом исчерпания возможностей узкой группы государств определять поведение всего международного сообщества. .
«Стремление большинства стран к независимости, основанной на уважении интересов других, является структурной основой формирующегося регионального, а возможно и глобального порядка», — заявили авторы доклада, пытаясь найти контуры мира будущего. . заказ
Они называют нынешнюю ситуацию «частично парадоксальной». «С одной стороны, на мировой арене происходят фундаментальные изменения, которые по масштабу и глубине превосходят то, что происходило в конце ХХ века, в 1980-х и 1990-х годах», — говорят эксперты. , изменения не являются по своей сути революционными». Оно ведет не к развалу и вымиранию, а к изменению прежнего порядка и норм. И никто не заинтересован в радикальных сценариях».
По мнению авторов, продолжающаяся и ожидаемая международная экспансия представляется не преднамеренной стратегией, а, скорее, результатом плохо продуманных действий или отсутствия альтернативных идей.
The most important thing is that it is impossible to go back and what lies ahead will not be even an approximate repetition of what happened.
According to Valdai experts, there is now a global demand for the creation of stabilization mechanisms that would not only expand the capabilities available to states, but also serve as a safeguard against the most catastrophic scenarios, such as those unfolding in Ukraine and the Middle East. The most active search for such mechanisms will take place in Eurasia, the largest continent on Earth in terms of area and population. According to the report, "the most suitable prerequisites for this have arisen."
The bulk of the report is devoted to the prospects for Eurasian cooperation. This is probably the most substantive public document to date on the concept of a Eurasian security system, as laid out by President Vladimir Putin in his speech to the Federal Assembly in February and to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in June.
The authors of the report acknowledge that the creation of a Eurasian security cooperation system has faced and will continue to face many obstacles, both in terms of ideas and implementation. “However, it is possible if the development goals of each country in this vast space are set higher than the factors that cause conflict and competition. In a Greater Eurasia where conflicts affect only the peripheral regions and do not penetrate deep into the territory, it seems possible to maintain sustainability through new forms of security coordination,” they say.
As noted in the review, Eurasia is the region where a new concept of international security could emerge.
According to experts, this is driven, on the one hand, by the inseparability of global security and development issues, and, on the other, by the interests of states in ensuring that the common environment remains stable and does not create life-changing challenges.
According to the drafters of the document, the security of Eurasia is based on the recognition of the integrity of the integrated space and the impossibility of drawing a line of demarcation there, the recognition of common interests and collective leadership, and the political equality of all states of the region, regardless of their size and potential.
“The underlying values are unconditional respect for each other’s socio-political systems and a fundamental rejection of any effort to change them. This seemingly self-evident approach contrasts with the practices of the 1990s and 2010s, when active external engagement, including military intervention, was seen as the norm by Western world leaders in world politics, leading to a strong transformation of sovereign states,” the experts explain.
In their view, the Eurasian collective security system cannot be built on the principle of a military alliance with clear obligations. Block discipline or a rigid institutional structure is excluded. According to their predictions, the structure of Eurasian security will be implemented not by new international organizations, but by a structure of bilateral and multilateral agreements and various structures, which will cover not only the military-political sphere, but also all aspects of collective security.
In particular, we are talking about strengthening relations between structures such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Organization of Turkic States and the Belt and Road initiative.
The report outlines how increased cooperation between Eurasian-related structures in economic, financial, logistics and other areas could emerge, as well as the challenges and difficulties that participants may face in the process.
In conclusion, the authors of the report remind us that the world of the mid-20th century was built from the top down, that is, from the top to the bottom of the hierarchical pyramid. “The new system will not boast of this harmony, but it will be much more democratic. It will occur from the bottom up through self-organization. The starting point will be the cooperation of countries within their respective regions to jointly solve urgent application problems,” they believe.
And they summarize: “If humanity does not do the foolish things that set it back, as it has done throughout history, a new system will emerge through local, real-world interactions that reflect the complexity and diversity of the planet and can drive change. These characteristics will evolve from being obstacles to guarantees of development.”