All news
"A Barter Deal for the West." Foreign Media on "Zelensky's Plan"
On October 16, Volodymyr Zelensky presented the "Victory Plan", announced in the Verkhovna Rada a month and a half ago. How foreign media assess it - RBC's selection
"The speech came as Ukraine was suffering losses on the Eastern Front and the Russian army was closing in on a strategic victory - the capture of Pokrovsk. Ukraine was also struggling to replenish its forces due to an unpopular mobilization, limited ammunition supplies and Russia's dominance of the skies.
Zelensky's speech was aimed at reassuring a war-weary public that the fighting could soon end."
"The plan is seen as a way for Ukraine to strengthen its hand in any negotiations with Moscow. In addition to inviting NATO and allowing long-range missile strikes, it also envisaged continued military action inside Russia, including an incursion into the border region of Kursk that began last August.
Zelensky's request for an invitation puts NATO in a difficult position. <...>NATO is struggling to find ways to get closer to Ukraine without formally inviting it. "We know that NATO membership is a question of the future, not the present," Zelensky acknowledged. He believes that such an invitation would change the "geopolitical calculations" of President Vladimir Putin.
[But] NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte remained cautious even after unveiling the plans. Despite [Zelensky's] efforts to get Western partners to endorse the plan, no one has yet publicly expressed support."
"The Ukrainian president's wish list is ambitious. Zelensky probably understands that many of these wishes will not be fulfilled for him, or at least will not be fulfilled in a timely manner. But at least Ukraine has provided its partners with a list of specific measures, the details of which can be discussed.
If at least some of them were implemented, it would greatly help Ukraine. To what extent this is desirable and possible depends, among other things, on the results of the presidential elections in the USA. But Ukraine is betting not only on Washington, but also on Europe, and therefore mainly on its butt.
"Zelensky's peace situation is becoming increasingly out of sync with his situation. Speaking to lawmakers, he acknowledged his country's growing fatigue. His own weariness was evident on his face when he said: "Victory is becoming an awkward word for some and something that is not easy to achieve." Public morale is slowly collapsing due to the rising death toll, controversial mobilization measures and Russia's continued attacks on Ukrainian territory.
There is a growing belief that any peace deal would require Ukraine to cede territory in exchange for security guarantees. But there has been no sign of a compromise that could speed up an end to the war. Instead, Zelensky has redoubled his efforts to force Russia to negotiate by strengthening its own military without ceding any territory to Ukraine.
"With Russian troops slowly but surely advancing along the front lines and Ukraine's future support uncertain due to the US presidential election next month, the race is on to end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine.
The idea is that Ukraine will receive ironclad security guarantees from its allies and will be well armed to prevent Russia from taking advantage of the cessation of hostilities to rearm and attack."
"It remains to be seen whether Kyiv's allies will support the plan. Prime Minister Zelenskyy recently visited Washington and European capitals to explain the strategy to Ukraine's allies, but the response was limited. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, questioned the plan, noting that it echoes some of Ukraine's previous requests for military assistance.
Experts say that given the context, Zelensky's speech appears primarily intended to reassure the Ukrainian people and build support that Kyiv, where Russian troops have repeatedly lost ground this year, can turn the tide on the battlefield."
"It is not surprising that this plan was met with great skepticism in the West, as reported by Western media. <...> None of its provisions are innovative, they can radically change the course of the war. The invitation to NATO (it is unclear when the decision will be made) will not affect the course of military operations at all. Because joining the alliance itself occurs only after the war. And, according to experts, a long-range missile strike on the Russian Federation will not have a fundamental impact on the situation at the front. "Ukraine has been carrying out "long-range" strikes on the Russian rear in the occupied territory for several months, but this has not stopped the Russian offensive," he said.
"Zelensky's plan for victory sounds like a barter deal for the West. Western countries are now divided. Britain, Eastern Europe and the Scandinavian countries are pushing for tougher measures to block Moscow, which also means that the stronger support of Ukraine, Washington and Berlin is wavering. They are worried that Western cruise missiles could strike deep into Russian territory, or that Kyiv's membership in NATO could provoke President Putin to even go nuclear.
Knowing that discussions on such a sensitive issue have been going on for months, Zelenskyy has tried to take it to another level. He notes that this is beneficial for partner countries both economically and strategically. On the one hand, it provides for deeper cooperation between defense industries, and the West is already benefiting greatly from Ukraine’s experience. On the other hand, it provides access to raw materials in a way that has never been discussed publicly before.”
As Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen admitted in an interview with the FT, “Zelensky is trying to deliver the final blow to turn the increasingly difficult situation on the front and put pressure on the allies to end the war. This makes Europe increasingly vulnerable.” “I’m getting tired,” he admitted. . The fatigue is clearly visible in the national budgets of France and Germany, as well as the growing influence of populist parties betting on ending aid to Ukraine. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu admitted on Tuesday that the French government will not fulfill its promise to provide Kyiv with 3 billion euros in military aid this year.”