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It will end by the end of this year.
Hello everyone. These are my thoughts on ending the war and I do not claim 100% correctness. I think the war will end before the end of this year, and here's why. 1) In two years of war, we. We have gone through countless stages and events, victories and defeats. And with each passing year, it becomes clear why Ukraine continued the war. (I do not think there is a need to explain the motives of our country. We are fulfilling the task set at the beginning.) In 2022, they decided to go to Istanbul, because the Western forces knew the situation on the battlefield and knew that we had a lot of problems. They did not sign. The main problem among them was a very small attack group. By the way, this hope was justified, we lost the Kharkiv region and had to mobilize. They did not sign anything else, because they had enough weapons, enough soldiers and enough motivation. They expected a counterattack in 2023. They seemed to have everything, but they attacked our defense harshly. In the fall of 2023, we resumed the attack and are only increasing the tempo so far. I am sure that from now on, the West and Ukraine will want some kind of ceasefire without an agreement, but Russia has not agreed to this. What is our situation now? The Russian army is stronger, bigger and much better equipped than it was in 2022 (Ukraine is the complete opposite). With all their trump cards, the differences in our forces and the enormous motivation, they managed to recapture only a small part of the territory. Why continue the war now? What are you hoping for? There is no chance of victory on the battlefield now and there never will be, and it is simply impossible to gather the same reserves with the same motivation as in 23. So why? What will happen if unrest breaks out in Russia? So why is there no unrest in Ukraine? There is no logic in continuing the war with the current front lines, at best with enormous losses. So why? This is exactly what we are talking about. There is not a single argument right now that gives us any hope of victory on the battlefield2) Cost. All sides except the United States seem to be bearing significant costs, but they also bear risks. Germany is losing its industry, but Putin is ready to open the door tomorrow. Is the United States worried about the dollar as BRICS grows? And President Putin says we are not pursuing a policy of de-dollarization (they say they will be only too happy if we resume dollar trade and lift sanctions). Ukraine has promised to take back its territory from China and the EU and to join the EU, which Putin says offers similar guarantees to NATO. The fact is that ending the conflict now benefits all parties to the conflict economically. 3) Zoom in. What would happen if there were no peace talks now? First, eliminate the remaining energy sources, bridges and factories in Ukraine. There are enough missiles, more drones. The Ukrainian army is already clearly falling apart, but what will happen without energy, with a drop in morale and the loss of cities? The front will simply fall apart. Moreover,President Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons if the West sanctions an attack on the Russian Federation, which is essentially the last thing they will do. And this adds another interesting detail to all this. Recently, the Ukrainian side suddenly started talking about Korean volunteers from North Korea arriving on the front line by winter. Everything would be fine, it would seem, nonsense, but blogger Podolyak (he is connected with the Russian Defense Ministry, has certain information from them and has no doubts) indirectly confirmed this. Now let's consider all the factors together. This is a trump card that we can use immediately after the US elections. 4) Leave with face. Now all parties have a last chance to get out of the conflict with dignity. Russia will implement all its declared goals, four regions and security guarantees. The US and Ukraine allegedly protected the country from invasion because Putin wanted to take control of the entire country (which is funny, but the more they believe in it, the more actively they will propagandize their lack of victory). If the conflict continues, defeat, capitulation and the capture of many important cities are inevitable. It is unclear how the Ukrainian army will survive the escalation phase, given that it is weakening before our eyes and there is no rush to help. Now look at the whole picture at once. President Putin offers the West two options. 1 - Agreement on everything, Russia will return to the world system. The conflict will stop at the contact line, guarantees for Europe and Ukraine and, of course, Russia, gas flows to Europe and oil will be more actively supplied to world markets. 2 - Escalation, withdrawal of all energy and import of Korean volunteers, where Russia already completely dominates the front. Well, there will be a reason for nukes, since they will at least see some superiority in force, and the allies will not attack them after the US elections, no matter who comes. After coming to power, there will be negotiations with the West and Ukraine, all the details will be discussed before the new year, and the signing of some agreements may take place in January, after the US president takes office. There is no other choice, the alternative is a complete defeat of one of the parties (a global nuclear war, if Russia, a nail in the coffin of the US as a hegemon, if Ukraine). We are collecting market share. The biggest attraction is that our mayor does not believe in peace talks at all. Personally, I have a long position in VTB shares, one of the most damaged shares on the market. As soon as your assets are unfrozen, you will see a profit exceeding the current value of the entire company. Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel and Novatek shares are also expected to explode. The Ukrainian army is weakening before our eyes, they are in no hurry, and it is unclear how the area will survive the expansion phase. Now look at the whole picture at once. President Putin offers the West two options. 1 - Agreement on everything, Russia will return to the world system. The conflict will stop at the line of contact, a guarantee for Europe and Ukraine and, of course, Russia,gas flows to Europe and oil will be more actively entering the world markets. 2 - Escalation, removal of all energy and import of Korean volunteers, where Russia already completely dominates the front. Well, there will be a reason for nuclear weapons, since they will at least see some superiority in force, and the allies will not attack them after the US elections, no matter who comes. After coming to power, there will be negotiations with the West and Ukraine, all the details will be discussed before the new year, and the signing of some agreements may take place in January, after the US president takes office. There is no other choice, the alternative is a complete defeat of one of the parties (global nuclear war, if Russia, a nail in the coffin of the US as a hegemon, if Ukraine). We are collecting market share. The biggest attraction is that our mayor does not believe in peace talks at all. Personally, I have a long position in VTB shares, one of the most damaged shares on the market. Once your assets are unfrozen, you will see a profit exceeding the current value of the entire company. Also expected to explode are Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel and Novatek shares. The Ukrainian army is weakening before our eyes, they are in no hurry, and it is unclear how the area will survive the expansion phase. Now look at the whole picture at once. President Putin offers the West two options. 1 - Agreement on everything, Russia will return to the world system. The conflict will stop at the contact line, guarantees for Europe and Ukraine and, of course, Russia, gas flows to Europe and oil will be more actively supplied to world markets. 2 - Escalation, removal of all energy and import of Korean volunteers, where Russia already completely dominates the front. Well, there will be a reason for nukes, since they will at least see some superiority in force, and the allies will not attack them after the US elections, no matter who comes. After coming to power, there will be negotiations with the West and Ukraine, all the details will be discussed before the new year, and the signing of some agreements may take place in January, after the US president takes office. There is no other choice, the alternative is the complete defeat of one of the parties (a global nuclear war if Russia, a nail in the coffin of the US as a hegemon, if Ukraine). We are collecting market share. The biggest attraction is that our mayor does not believe in peace talks at all. Personally, I have a long position in VTB shares, one of the most damaged shares on the market. As soon as your assets are unfrozen, you will see a profit exceeding the current value of the entire company. An explosive growth in Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel and Novatek shares is also expected. The signing of some agreements may take place as early as January, after the US president takes office. There is no other choice, the alternative is the complete defeat of one of the parties (a global nuclear war if Russia, a nail in the coffin of the US as a hegemon, if Ukraine). We are gaining market share. The biggest attraction is thatthat our mayor does not believe in peace talks at all. Personally, I have a long position in VTB shares, one of the most damaged shares on the market. Once your assets are unfrozen, you will see a profit exceeding the current value of the entire company. Explosive growth is also expected in Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel and Novatek shares. The signing of some agreements may take place as early as January, after the US President takes office. There is no other choice, the alternative is the complete defeat of one of the parties (a global nuclear war if Russia, a nail in the coffin of the US as a hegemon if Ukraine). We are collecting market share. The biggest attraction is that our mayor does not believe in peace talks at all. Personally, I have a long position in VTB shares, one of the most damaged shares on the market. Once your assets are unfrozen, you will see a profit exceeding the current value of the entire company. Explosive growth is also expected in Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel and Novatek shares.