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🏦 Sberbank and report: Risk is greater than profitability. Oh, and why does no one want to take loans?
• 🔼 : increased by 7.1% compared to last year and amounted to 218.9 billion rubles. A good result, but so are most normal banks. Just remember: the growth of interest income is a reaction to the crisis policy of the Central Bank, and not an indicator of organic growth. • 🔽 : decreased by 0.4% and amounted to 65 billion rubles. This can be explained by: general economic instability, a decrease in activity in the retail lending sector and an increase in loan rates. Also, as for me, clients no longer want to pay for services that they cannot afford, and are starting to cut back on their financial requests. • ⚠️ : reached a record 98 billion rubles - this is the maximum figure for 2024. A bank with such an aggressive financial policy is forced to put aside more and more funds in case of mass defaults. Why? Fear of a possible crisis of non-payments from businesses and the population. • 🔼: increased by 8% to 140.6 billion rubles, despite all the negative factors. But for how long, we will see in the future.. • 🔪 the loan portfolio increased by 2.9% in September, which is lower than the August figure of 3.8%. • 🔪 lending grew by only 0.9%, although last month it was 1.5%.
Sber has already accumulated 26.5 rubles per share (dividends), which gives a yield of over 10%. It seems not bad, but also seems a bit low, if you look at the key rate of 19%.
Currently, high dividends cannot compensate for the risks that have accumulated in the banking system.
Sberbank's net profit has grown, but under the conditions of the 19% KS, the bank is facing a slowdown in lending and record expenses on reserves. New podcast episode from the investment channel "Fond&Flow" I wrote a post for you - " ", and also analyzed the features of fundamental analysis during the crisis in Russia. Latest episode: 🩸MTS - promises on promises. What if everyone stops believing in the payment of large dividends?
🎲#22. Under the ribs.. The bank beloved by many is again in front of us with a report for September 2024. Well, as always, the official results are impressive... how could it be otherwise? When analyzing any bank in our country, the most interesting part is the increase in the key rate to 19%, of course, did not pass without a trace for the banking sector, and this is against the background of talks about increasing it to 20-25%. An obvious slowdown in corporate and retail lending: Well, everything is simple here. Of course, when everyone shouts: "Raise the rate, it is necessary to stabilize inflation," the banks are not particularly happy about this. Sberbank has to direct half of its profits to business development, and this shows that the bank cannot afford to pay dividends in full. Taking Sberbank solely for dividends will not be a particularly reasonable decision. Perhaps, in 2025, many will have to reconsider their expectations for payments. ______ On the channel, we completely analyzed and gave entry and purchase points! If you are interested, come in 👇