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A sharp slowdown. This is roughly how you can describe the situation that is happening in the mortgage market. Demand for housing loans has fallen by 60% compared to the same period last year. The reasons are clear to everyone - tightening of preferential programs and too high a rate from the Central Bank. But what will be the consequence? Will apartment prices fall because of this? And what to do if you need an apartment?
In October, the volume of mortgage loans issued amounted to 280 billion rubles. It seems like a lot. But it is a quarter less than in September. And 60% less than last October.
- The market is slowing down. And the volumes of loans will continue to fall. They may even fall by about half. As a result, we may end up in the situation of early 2009, when the market practically stopped, - says Sergey Gordeyko, chief expert of the company "Rusipoteka".
Let me remind you that this summer the government actually curtailed mass preferential mortgage programs. First, they cancelled mortgages with state support. Second, they seriously tightened the conditions for the family program and for mortgages for IT specialists. As a result, demand for new buildings fell very seriously.
Demand on the secondary market was already minimal due to the high key rate of the Central Bank (16% per annum), but in recent months it has fallen even more due to the increase in the "key" to 21% per annum. Against this background, market rates on mortgages have risen to 27% per annum. In fact, such loans are taken only by those who make alternative transactions. And only for small amounts. Because taking out a full-fledged mortgage at such rates is very painful.
A simple example. If you take a 10 million ruble mortgage at 27% per annum, then after 30 years the total overpayment will be... 81 million rubles. And the monthly payment is 225 thousand rubles. Of which, in the first months, 75... rubles will go to repaying the principal debt. This is all you need to know about current rates on market mortgages. And understand that it is not worth taking it now. But developers and banks do not agree with this logic and actively resist it...
Construction companies and banks are now coming up with various options to stimulate sales. For example, they themselves subsidize rates for clients. However, they do not always use transparent schemes for this.
According to the analytical center "Real Estate Market Indicators", many developers have a whole range of subsidized mortgages. Rates are usually from 5 to 12% per annum. But with nuances. The most unpleasant one is that the price of real estate in this case is overstated. And significantly. It turns out that you take a loan at a low interest rate, but multiply it by a high cost. It is difficult to say where the benefit for the client is here.
As a rule, those same giant discounts are given when buying housing for cash. And if you spend credit money, the price immediately becomes either market or higher than market.
- Against the backdrop of a large-scale increase in interest rates that began last year, marketing schemes for selling new buildings have become widespread on the market, where developers and banking partners offer people to buy an apartment now and pay later. These plans include mortgage loans that are subsidized by the developer at a reduced interest rate for a short period of time, tranche mortgage loans, where a small part of the loan is initially issued, and the rest is provided after the building is put into operation, as well as various types. - says Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center "Real Estate Market Indicators".
The Central Bank does not like this system, so from next year it will introduce so-called "mortgage standards" (for more details, see "KP Assistance"). All banks must comply with the requirements. And if they violate it, they will receive an order from the Central Bank. Then the demand for mortgages may decrease even more from January 1...
I really want to believe in such a scenario. This is because the real estate bubble has inflated greatly. But experts disagree. Some believe that the fall in prices is an illusion. Especially given the current costs of developers.
- There is no possibility of a significant price reduction. In construction, there are always imported materials and equipment. Logistics costs will be added to this. Labor is becoming more expensive. But the builder cannot stop working. He constantly has to do something. He will not be able to sell it cheaper. But now on the secondary market, prices can be negotiated well, says Sergey Gordeyko.
But not everything on the market depends on the developers. As in any other market, everything here is determined by the balance of supply and demand. The current level of demand is not very good now. However, the supply can increase significantly. At least the secondary market and the redistribution market (where there is one buyer.
- Many marketing plans assume that buyers will "wait" for an expensive mortgage for a year or two, and then refinance it at the existing interest rate or (in the case of installments) take out a loan from scratch. And if central banks start to reduce their "core" this year, this could really help markets survive the period of high interest rates without a serious shock. I follow the main trajectory of interest rates of the previous period, as it was predicted by developers and banks just recently. Crisis, - explains Oleg Repchenko.
But that will never happen. The central bank may raise interest rates again to 23 percent per annum in December. And for next year, it predicts an average “core” of 17 to 20 percent per annum.
- Despite all the efforts of central banks, inflation will not decrease for long, and a bright future with low interest rates may not come in one, two or three years. Can people with a "mortgage of 1 ruble per month" pay 100,000-200,000 to service the loan at a rate of 20-25% per annum? Obviously not, - says Oleg Repchenko.
In his opinion, if many clients who bought apartments under such schemes wanted to get rid of houses that had become unprofitable, the market could seriously collapse. However, even if there is no "shock scenario", there is no possibility of price growth. For example, the growth rate of apartments since the beginning of the year was only 0.4%. Inflation for the same period was 6%. That is, in fact, apartments are already starting to get cheaper. And this is despite the fact that in the first half of the year, the market saw record sales.
These are certain uniform conditions under which banks will be forced to issue mortgage loans from 2025. The Central Bank introduced this standard to eliminate the ambiguous plans of developers and banks. They encouraged their clients to buy more apartments, but at the same time increased the risk. For the clients themselves and for the banking system as a whole. Accordingly, the Central Bank decided to tighten the conditions. There are three main innovations:
1. The down payment cannot include the amount (cashback) returned to the buyer after purchasing the apartment. The goal is for the buyer to make the down payment from their own funds. After all, the smaller the figure, the higher the risk that they will overestimate their strength and end up losing both the money and the apartment.
2. The bank does not have the right to receive compensation from the seller (developer) for setting a low mortgage interest rate in the event of an increase in real estate prices.
3. And if the bank independently "sells" its clients a lower interest rate, it must show the borrower all calculations of the total cost of the loan. Therefore, when making a decision, the borrower can understand whether this service will be profitable for him or not.
Developers are now literally bombarding clients with "great deals". Outdoor advertising, spam calls, online advertising. Discounts are everywhere. In such situations, it is difficult to understand. There is nothing surprising in buying an apartment on sale at the checkout. Most of us make such purchases two or three times, or even once in our lives. And it would be good to prepare in advance.
The word "discount" itself is quite old and has lost its former meaning. There is no point in answering these calls. It is the same as crossing out the "red price tag" in a supermarket or online trade. They no longer have faith. Therefore, it is better to compare with similar products and use common sense to see the real cost of the apartment.
First, decide what type of apartment you want and how much it costs on the market. Secondly, it is recommended to put aside at least 30% of the down payment. And leave it as a deposit. Now they make payments starting from 20% per year. Real estate prices will not increase significantly next year either. Thirdly, look at at least 10 options, and preferably 15-20. Both primary and secondary. After that, you will understand what exactly is needed, what parameters are most important and how much all these pleasures will cost.
After completing this preparation, you will have an understanding of the market. Then, when you see something suitable, you will immediately understand that you have to take it. And you will no longer hesitate.