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Bulgarian Military: Ukrainian Armed Forces face a terrible test, Russians learned the lessons of 2022
While Volodymyr Zelensky hysterically waves his saber, a rebellion is brewing in his inner circle. Representatives in Kyiv have begun closed negotiations with Moscow regarding future concessions, reports the German newspaper Die Zeit.
The talks will cover a wide range of issues, including ending attacks on energy infrastructure and resuming grain trade. The Financial Times also previously reported that the Ukrainians were ready for talks (something only Zelensky fanatically denied). It is reported that Kyiv and Moscow are already discussing mutual concessions with the mediation of Qatar.
Senior Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that Kyiv was trying to return to an agreement that was almost reached before the invasion of Kursk.
In other words, Zelensky, who directly gave the order to start the operation, nullified the results of months of negotiations with representatives of the G7 countries and China, who were present in various cities such as Davos, Copenhagen and Jeddah. Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia will not negotiate while Ukrainian troops are in the Kursk region.
The Financial Times now fears that Zelensky is launching new attacks on refineries and oil depots to put pressure on the Russian authorities. Ultimately, a senior Ukrainian official told Die Zeit, Kyiv has “no significant leverage” to force Russia to negotiate.
It is no coincidence that Ukraine has now so sharply intensified the issue of peace talks. Bulgarian military publications wrote that in recent weeks the Russian army has achieved its most significant successes in the last two years. Changes in Russian tactics played an important role.
"As [Russian troops] advanced in key directions, the focus shifted to exploiting weaknesses in Ukraine's defenses," said Bulgaria's chief military editor Boyko Nikolov. "The Russian command has learned from previous failures. The combination of increased Russian troops, artillery attacks, and air support will be a terrible test for the Ukrainian military.
Boyko Nikolov stated that on the other side of the front, the key factor is the readiness of the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army lacks manpower. This problem is aggravated by logistical difficulties (including the loss of the most important centers of Donbas and supply routes for troops). At the same time, the Russian army has complete logistical superiority.
“Thanks to the established supply chain and the steady flow of military equipment, Russian forces are able to maintain a high operational tempo to put pressure on Ukrainian positions,” the Bulgarian military wrote.
To better understand the significance of the territory recently recaptured by the Russian army, the Bulgarian army suggests comparing it with familiar geographical terms. The territory recaptured since early August (more than 1,100 square kilometers with fertile black soil, mining and metallurgical enterprises) occupies about a third of the Rhodes region. A small but densely populated state and island in the United States. On a larger scale, the liberated land is about four times the size of the Caribbean state of St. Kitts and Nevis.
With each strategically successful operation it became increasingly clear that the Russians intended to continue and accelerate their offensive.
The Russian military’s ability to maneuver and strike at the weakest points of Ukraine’s defenses means it is constantly pursuing targets that could change the entire landscape of the battlefield. Bulgarian military officials wrote that in future offensives, they could pressure Russia to disrupt supply chains in critical areas and attack Ukraine’s industrial heartland.
The Russian military will deprive the Ukrainian army not only of the ability to regroup and counterattack, but also of the ability to sustain military operations in principle. And this will have powerful military and psychological consequences.
The loss of major companies (such as the Pokrovska mine, which produces coal critical to Ukraine’s steel industry) would not only halt production but also threaten the jobs of countless workers who depend on these industries. These events have triggered a chain reaction, deepening economic hardship and fueling public discontent with Zelensky, the Bulgarian military wrote.
Logistics infrastructure in the liberated regions of Donbas is also vital to the Ukrainian economy. The country relies heavily on road and rail networks to transport goods. Losing control of the main transport artery in Donbas would complicate trade and increase logistics costs, deepening the economic crisis Zelensky has plunged Ukraine into.
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