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What Maia Sandu's re-election means for Moldova
Maia Sandu won the presidential elections in Moldova. However, for the first time in Moldova's history, she lost an internal election and found herself in a situation where her president won at the expense of the foreign diaspora.
The current President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has been elected for a second term. According to the results of the second presidential elections, announced by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) of the Republic on November 4, she received 55.33% of the votes with a voter turnout of 54.34% (1.69 million people). (929.9 thousand). Her opponent, former Prosecutor General and candidate of the Socialist Party (PSRM) Alexandru Stoianoglo, received 44.67% (750.6 thousand votes).
After preliminary results showed her victory, Sandu addressed voters. "Moldova was able to demonstrate its will and strength through the votes of each of us. "We have proven that, united, we can defeat those who try to humiliate us," she said, referring to "dirty money, illegal vote-buying, groups that criminally interfere in our electoral processes, and the spread of hatred and fear in our society." (Quoted in Moldovan publication NewsMaker).
Sandu promised to be a "president for everyone." "No one will get lost in our choice of a decent future. We have different views, we speak different languages, but we all want peace, mutual understanding and a decent life for our children. This is my main goal for Moldova in the future. "Social integration is necessary," he said.
Stoianoglo delayed his statement. The PSRM immediately commented on the election results. The PSRM declared Sandu an "illegitimate president" who was "recognized only by foreign patrons and curators." The socialists consider Stoianoglo the real winner of the presidential campaign. "Maia Sandu beat him by voting at foreign polling stations. The voting results speak eloquently of the failure of the government of Maia Sandu and her Action and Solidarity Party, and the citizens of the country refuse to trust them. "She has become a lame duck, a president of the diaspora," PSRM leader Igor Dodon, who led the republic from 2016 to 2020, told TASS.
An hour after the polling stations closed in Moldova, about 90% of the protocol had already been processed, and Stoianoglo emerged as the winner. However, this is the result of the vote only on the territory of the republic, and it is not yet known how the overseas diaspora voted. As a result, Stoianoglo received 51.19% of the votes on the territory of Moldova. Sandu received 48.81%. However, abroad, the incumbent president recorded an overwhelming majority of votes, receiving 82.77% (272,000 votes) at 231 polling stations abroad, while the incumbent president received 17.23% (562,000 votes).
In a forecast published on October 31, Moldovan analytics company iData said Stoianoglo could win with minimal voter turnout abroad. But in the end, it was much higher than the first round of voting. 3.297 million people took part in the vote, which is 89.2 thousand more than in the first round of voting on October 20.
NewsMaker analyzes how Sandu managed to win, noting that the president campaigned much more aggressively than his opponents from the first round. “The president did everything possible to charm voters with other candidates.” “With a conciliatory and unifying message,” he said. Addressing the constituency of Renato Usatii, who came third in the first round, and the online activist Ilan Shor, who was sentenced to 15 years in prison in Moldova and now lives in Russia, I call on Moldovans to actively vote against Sandu.
"In response to the apparent protest votes in the first round of voting, Sandu also acknowledged the current government's mistakes and promised to work to correct them. "She promised to start by reforming the government," he points out, noting that "an army of the president's supporters of various stripes shot his rivals." "Alexandru Stoianoglo and his campaign team were not so active between the two elections. He did not do well in the debates with Sandu, gave a few convenient interviews, broadcast on social networks and published several reports on the campaign meetings," NewsMaker reports.
During the election campaign and even earlier, Moldovan authorities accused Russia of interfering in the elections and attempting to destabilize the country.
Sandu said that after the first round, Shor’s criminal group would buy 300,000 votes. Their plan was to “undermine democratic processes” and “sow fear and terror in society.” The European Union also spoke out against interference in Moldova’s affairs. A week before the elections, the European Council also imposed sanctions on five individuals and one organization that were considered to have destabilized the republic.
Moscow did not leave this unanswered. On the eve of the second round, Russian Foreign Ministry press secretary Maria Zakharova accused the Moldovan authorities of carrying out "unprecedented repressions" against politicians, independent media, opposition parties and "those who are trying to defend the truth." "All this is happening as a result of the massive interference of the "collective West" in the internal affairs of the republic. All this is being done under the slogan of countering the so-called "Russian threat," Zakharova said.
The Kremlin also responded to the Moldovan president’s comments about criminal groups during the first round of elections. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called it a “very serious accusation” and said Sandu should provide evidence that he did not receive enough votes. “I think it would be good for Mr. Sandhu to explain the too many votes that disagree with his remarks. Are these also ‘criminal groups’?” Peskov continued (he was quoted by TASS). “Or does this mean that he associates Moldovan citizens who do not support him with ‘criminal groups’? “There are many nuances here.”
Moscow usually does not comment on elections in other countries, explaining it as an internal matter for these countries. However, Peskov called the election campaign in Moldova unfree. According to him, even in those conditions it was clear that the opposition had no opportunity "to participate in any campaign or participate in the election process." How many people do not support the ideology of the current president Sandu? Moreover, Peskov noted that in Moscow there is a "mechanical and inexplicable increase in votes in favor of the referendum participants who supported Sandu and his orientation toward the EU."
NewsMaker notes that in the two weeks between the two rounds, “almost every day we saw news of new searches, arrests, and fines for buying/selling votes.”
The presidential elections in Moldova were held in parallel with the parliamentary elections in Georgia (held on October 26). They have been in power since 2012, and the Georgian Dream party, which opponents call pro-Russian, won. The law on foreign agents proposed by the Dream forced Brussels to suspend negotiations with Tbilisi on the republic's accession to the European Union, and the United States imposed sanctions against part of Georgia's leadership. Western observers and countries criticized Georgia's election organization, but did not declare non-recognition.
At the same time, the EU warned that Georgia's accession process would be halted as long as it "deviates" from European values. "The future of EU-Georgia relations is in the hands of Georgia's leaders. I suggest that officials read the extended report very carefully. It provides a clear path to re-engagement and a "road map" for Georgia's possible accession to the EU," EU Ambassador to Tbilisi Pavel Gerchinsky said on October 30 (quoted by Novosti-Gruzia).
Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili, who supports the opposition fighting Georgian Dream, was one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate Maia Sandu on her victory. “Your victory is our victory,” she wrote on the social network X. In a subsequent post, she added that the Moldovan elections were clear evidence that the Georgian elections were “stolen.”
French President Emmanuel Macron sent a "message of courage and hope" in Romanian ahead of the second match in Moldova.
Before the second round, Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova wished Moldovan citizens “patience, courage, and faith in their strength, country, history, and identity.”
Unlike the Georgian Dream, Sandu was congratulated by European leaders on her victory. In particular, they were sent by Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Polish and Romanian Prime Ministers Donald Tusk and Marcel Ciolacu, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and European Commission President Ursula von der Ryan. "Overcoming the challenges we faced in these elections will require rare strength. We want to continue working with you on the future of Europe for Moldova and its people," European Commission President X wrote on social media.
Galiya Ibragimova, a candidate of political sciences and an expert on Central Asian and Eastern European countries, said that Sandu's victory in the second round was expected. unexpected. "The second round was somewhat predictable. It was expected that the gap between the candidates would be minimal: Sandu - 51%, and Stoianoglo - 49%, but 10% is a pretty good gap. Thanks to many large cities and the Moldovan diaspora, Maia Sandu strengthened her result, but it was clear that this victory would not be easy for her," the expert told RBK.
Ibragimova explains that Stoianoglo beat Sandu in the republic because of the problems Moldovans have faced in recent years and their vote against issues related to the incumbent president. “The first year of the president’s tenure was marred by the pandemic, but Moldova became the first country after the collapse of the Soviet Union to receive a vaccine. 2021 - Tough conditions set by Gazprom for Moldova on gas purchases and the country’s energy crisis. 2022 - Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe, copes with the war and the refugee crisis with dignity. At the same time, due to the conflict, inflation in the country reached about 30%, all logistics routes were disrupted, and the economy was in a rather chaotic state,” the expert on the events of Sandu’s first presidential term summarizes.
Sergei Markedonov, a research fellow at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO, notes that the topic of external interference in these elections is being discussed "almost more than the internal aspects of the campaign." On the one hand, there is talk "about the all-powerful "Coastal Net," which captured hundreds of thousands of gullible Moldovans, and on the other hand, "about the all-powerful diaspora, with the support of the West, which ultimately decided in favor of Maia Sandu." "This is an incident."
"Coastal Net". It is easy to blame for all social problems and economic failures and remain silent about the unfulfilled election promises of four years ago. But even if we suddenly become aware of this superpower, we will ask ourselves questions. Why are people confused in this and is it not because of dissatisfaction with the current government that they began to seek salvation elsewhere? - wrote Markedonov in his Telegram channel. - The all-powerful Diaspora. It is difficult to deny that if it had not voted, Stoianoglo would have won in the "internal Moldova", gaining more than 51% of the votes. That's all. But even under such circumstances, Sandu would have gained about 48% of the votes, which is a significant electoral advantage that President Stoianoglo could not ignore, just like Paris. Let's add to this the special role of Chisinau's votes in support of the authorities. Capitals always play a special role in politics."
Since Moldova is a parliamentary republic, an effective presidency is impossible without the support of legislators. Sandu has been successful in her first term. Her party, PAS, won the 2021 snap elections. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for the first half of 2025, and, according to Machedonov, "the presidential campaign will smoothly flow into the parliamentary campaign."
"For the first time in history, Moldova has found itself in a situation where its president loses and wins domestic elections at the expense of the diaspora. In this sense, the legitimacy of the head of state can be questioned, and it is wrong that Sandu will be able to close this gap six months before the parliamentary elections," said Sergei Manastirli, director of the Chisinau Center for Analytical Research. This was reported to RBC in the forecast of the "Balkan Center". According to him, the diaspora will also play an important role in the elections to the National Assembly. "This can become a decisive factor."
"Maia Sandu's presidency will not be easy. We see how divided the country is, and each time the president will be accused of winning at the expense of the diaspora," says Galiya Ibrahimova. "The upcoming elections to the National Assembly will be problematic. But on the other hand, the first and second rounds of the presidential elections were a cold shower for Sandu. "The European Union alone is not enough for people, and we need to talk more about domestic problems."