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The market has discounted Ozon Pharmaceutica
The first exchange trades of Ozon Pharmaceuticals shares since the IPO signal weakness in the Russian stock market. Despite being six times oversubscribed, the quote was almost 6% below the published price. This was partly due to the high share of individual investors with speculative tendencies. Given the current market conditions, market players are talking about postponing a number of lots to next year.
The start of secondary trading in Ozon Pharmaceuticals shares was of little joy to investors who took part in the IPO. On the Moscow Exchange on Thursday, October 17, quotes were mostly steadily falling, but at the opening they exceeded the placement price, reaching 35.07 rubles. At the end of the trading session, the price reached 33 rubles, a loss of 5.7%.
Meanwhile, the IPO itself went quite smoothly. Shares were placed at a price of 35 rubles - the upper limit of the announced range.
As two sources in the financial market told Kommersant, the book was oversubscribed six times. Investment company Digital Broker also reported that its subscription was exceeded by 5-6 times. According to one of Kommersant's sources, more than 20 institutional investors took part in the placement. Another Kommersant source in the market noted that almost none of the private investors submitted more than 10 applications (according to the terms of the placement, they were not satisfied). At the same time, all the applications began to converge.
At the same time, institutional investors accounted for 48% of the volume of placement of applications, and retail investors - 53%, the issuer reports. From July to September, the share of institutional investors in the IPO increased significantly. For VI.ru, it was 79%, for Promomed - about 83%, and for the Arenadata group - 57%. The average size of payments to individuals also increased by 11%. At the same time, according to Kommersant's sources in a large management company, institutional investors' applications for the placement of Ozon Pharma were satisfied by 20-50%, while previously the share price reached 50-70%.
According to sources at Kommersant, the main reason for the fall in prices is the departure of speculators who wanted to buy shares at a lower price.
Go Invest analysts also note that such dynamics can be partly explained by the general decline in the stock market. In particular, the Moscow Exchange index recorded 2795 points, down 0.8% on Thursday, and has remained mostly below 2800 points since the beginning of the current month.
Overall, the current situation is not very favorable for an IPO. All those who wanted to roll out this year have postponed it until better times next year, Kommersant's sources in the financial markets say. According to him, he does not expect the rollout to begin even at the beginning of 2025, since the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia is unlikely to soften by then. Another Kommersant source points out that the reason for the move is not only the market decline, but also the valuation of companies, as well as a decrease in production capacity, since not all companies are interested in small batches.
At the same time, investors generally have a positive view of the company itself. From a fundamental point of view, Ozon Pharmaceuticals shares remain interesting. The price is quite cheap. The EV/EBITDA multiple for 2024 is 4.5, and the business is growing. Investment company Digital Broker plans to open two new plants by 2027. Zarina Saidova, an analyst at the financial group Finam, noted that the biopharmaceutical sector on the Russian stock market is finally starting to take shape and new players in this sector will definitely attract the attention of investors. At the same time, she noted that the issuer indicated "a fairly modest placement price, significantly below the fair value."
At the same time, investment risks are related to the company's area of activity. Andrey Stratichuk, an analyst of financial markets at Gazprombank Investments, says that this is due to the highly competitive environment. Risks are also related to the development of new drugs and clinical trials, says Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab. "Any delay or deviation from the planned date will make it very difficult for the company to maintain high revenue growth rates that are attractive to investors," the expert notes.