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Trading results 16.10. Key benchmarks.
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Thanks to those who left productive comments and liked the article. • Apple is releasing a new iPad mini with AI features and an A17 Pro chip. Prices start at $499 (128 GB, 8.3 display). • Against this background, the company's market value exceeded $3.6 trillion for the first time in history. • Kazakhstan will refrain from applying to BRICS for now, giving preference to its obligations to the UN. • However, Tokayev will take part in the BRICS forum in Kazan and speak at an extended meeting on October 24. • FATF is preparing to discuss in the near future the creation of a blacklist for Russia, which Ukraine has been lobbying for since the spring of 2022. • Russia's membership in FATF was suspended in February 2023. • Russia and Belarus may abolish roaming by the end of 2023. • Israel has the right to make decisions based on its own interests. • Car sharing service Delimobil has launched a mechanical academy to train specialists to work in the company. • Investments in the project will amount to approximately 10 million rubles, candidates will receive compensation during their training. • The company produces over 500 types of canned goods and is the leading Russian manufacturer in this field. • The State Duma passed a bill according to which illegal migration of certain groups can be punishable by imprisonment for up to 15 years. • Civil servants can be deprived of the right to hold office for up to 10 years. • Scholz said he was ready to discuss plans for resolving the Ukrainian conflict with President Putin. • But he emphasizes that no decision can be made without the participation of partners in Kyiv and Berlin. • The plan is aimed at ensuring Ukraine's security and integrating the country into international structures. • Ukraine is striving for full membership in NATO and hopes for an invitation. • There are several secret aspects of the plan that have already been passed on to Western partners. • The Russian Prosecutor General's Office has demanded that Shell recover more than 1 billion euros for failure to fulfill obligations under the Sakhalin-2 project. • After Gazprom bought Shell shares, funds that should amount to more than 90 billion rubles may be written off from the account. • In August, the ruble accounted for 43.6% of payments for Asian goods, which is a record figure. • This made the ruble the main currency for paying for deliveries from Asian countries. • Globaltrans applied for a listing of receipts on the Astana International Exchange after delisting from the Moscow Exchange, St. Petersburg Exchange and LSE. • The company is also buying back receipts at a price of 520 rubles per share.
Bloomberg: The main reason for this weakening is the accelerating outflow of capital from Russia, which has been ongoing since July. According to economists, the three main factors affecting the ruble exchange rate are: • The net supply of foreign currency to the Russian market has fallen significantly. This is due to a decrease in global demand for Russian energy resources and a decrease in export revenues due to sanctions restricting exports. At the same time, demand for imported goods remains stable, increasing demand for foreign currency. • Secondly, due to high inflation and uncertainty, many investors prefer to keep their funds in dollars, euros or yuan, which increases pressure on the ruble.
Sinara Investment Bank: The active withdrawal of non-residents from Russian assets (both direct and portfolio investments) is accelerating the outflow of capital.
The ruble hit a one-year low in October, weakening against both the Chinese yuan and the US dollar. Economists expect the ruble to strengthen slightly in the coming weeks due to a possible interest rate hike by the central bank. However, in the long term, the ruble's weakening trend is likely to continue, especially given ongoing geopolitical risks and sanctions pressure.
Another part of the analysis of the ruble by investment companies Alfa Investments and BCS Mir Investments is presented below in the section "Main landmarks". • When driving at the permitted speed (110 km / h) on the M-11 highway, a musical sign appeared playing the melody "Kalinka-Malinka". • Software has been developed to calculate the parameters for applying markings using: • LADA Granta is one of the five most popular sedans in the world according to Focus2Move. • Since the beginning of the year, more than 151,000 Granta cars have been sold, second only to Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic. • By 2030, more than half of Moscow's tram lines will be driverless.
Despite the reversal structure of the candle today, the recent uptrend is likely to continue.
Gazprom shares (+1.7%) unexpectedly rose today and entered the TOP by trading volume for the day. There was no important news about the company today.
The reason for today's market weakness may be information about the increase in inflation expectations of the population in October. Regulators plan to make a decision on interest rates next Friday, and strong expectations of rate increases dominate the market. However, after the main information from Rosstat, another decrease in inflation was reflected.
Despite the fact that the bars are bearish in today's trading, the hourly time frame shows that the price is holding the 73.4 level.
However, the information background does not promote sustainable growth.
Alfa Investments: OPEC and IEA have cut demand forecasts, a trend that supports concerns about balances in 2025, especially given that OPEC+ plans to increase production. The geopolitical premium to Brent is gradually disappearing. Israel has said it has no plans to launch a missile strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure, easing market concerns about possible supply disruptions.
Prices are half a step away from new historical maximums. Today the price reached 2,685.41, and the absolute maximum is 2,685.58.
Alpha Investments:
The Cbonds agreement promises $2,590 per ounce at the end of the year at a rate of 95 rubles. For 1 dollar. This is slightly higher than 7,900 rubles. per gram, that is, 5% lower than now. Russian analysts do not believe that such a high price will last long.
The Bloomberg consensus is expected to be around $2,550 per ounce at 93-94 rubles. For $1. This is 7,700 rubles per gram, or 7% lower than now. For foreign analysts, the rise in gold and the weakening of the ruble are random factors. • Reduces currency swap limits by almost 20%. Liquidity is declining, and financing options are shrinking. The deficit leads to an increase in the exchange rate. • The central bank's tight monetary policy will remain in effect for a long time. There is a risk of another rate hike on October 25. A priori, we are talking about national currencies. This is due to the fact that more expensive loans reduce the demand for foreign currency for imports and make ruble products more attractive. • The budget mechanism is based on October rubles. The joint position of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance predicts that by the end of the first week of November, the limit on the sale of foreign currency will increase 25 times compared to the near-zero figure. September. These factors, increasing the supply of money on the market, are positive for the ruble exchange rate. • The US Treasury's license to manage the Moscow Exchange expired on October 12. Non-residents wishing to sell assets and buy foreign currency have already done so.
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