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Who will win the US presidential election: The fate of Trump and Harris will be decided by seven states and chance
...there are 3 weeks left until the US elections. Donald Trump's opponent is confidently ahead of him by 3-5 points in each poll. The New York Times, which publishes daily graphs of voter sentiment, wrote that it's not even about politics, stating: "Simple math proves the inevitable defeat of the Republican candidate." And he went and won...
We are talking about the 2016 elections, when Trump fought for the presidency against Democrat Hillary Clinton. No one could have predicted such a turn of events, except perhaps the most enthusiastic Donald, who never for a moment stopped believing in his lucky star. Commentators immediately rushed to look for the reason for the unexpected result. And their final (in hindsight!) assessment showed that the results were logical. Clinton made mistakes here and there, while Trump, on the contrary, scored points and deservedly won.
What about the election polls? And did the pollsters who did them see the actual statistical calculations, or did they see checks written to them by their research clients? There were lame excuses. The New York Times claimed that because the questions sent to voters were not clearly worded, the answers were ambiguous, leading to misinterpretations. Pollsters usually blame the secrecy of the elections. They say many of them are reluctant to express their true preferences.
2024 US Presidential Election Voter Survey
And here, exactly three weeks remain until that fateful day in American politics, and the news agencies, newspapers and TV channels are still full of graphs and charts showing the electoral mood of citizens. So, what do we see? Polls for every taste are like prizes at a fair. I don’t want to choose! According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, which traditionally evaluates candidates across the country, 49.8% of voters are ready to vote for Kamala Harris, and 46.9% are ready to vote for Donald Trump. Just like Clinton did eight years ago, with an advantage of 3%! But the Democrats are in no hurry to celebrate. And it’s not just that he burned out in 2016... Firstly, the numbers are growing in hours, not days. Secondly, there are other polls. For example, the ActiVote agency gives Trump an advantage of 1.2%. And while 49% of Americans support Trump, only 47% support Harris, according to a study by the polling firm Rasmussen Reports. And there are many such contradictory examples!
Who will win the US elections: forecasts
But the raw numbers mean nothing. Because U.S. elections are not direct elections, what matters is how many Electoral College votes a candidate gets. They will officially hold the final vote. There are 583 of them, and the number varies in each state. It is proportional to the population according to the latest census. And in all but two states, the following rule applies: Even with a one-vote advantage, the winning candidate has every vote at his disposal. So, like Democrat Al Gore in 2000, he could have won up to 100,000 more votes nationwide, but his opponent, Republican George W. Bush, ended up getting more electoral votes and becoming president. Trump is currently leading by that measure. Social aggregator RealClearPolitics gave him 302 votes.
But Republicans shouldn’t rest on their laurels. Everything could change in the so-called seven states. In the “swing” states, the election sentiment is roughly evenly divided. In other words, whoever wins there could enter the White House. Recent polls show Trump still leading in six states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina), while Harris is ahead only in Wisconsin. But the fact is that both have an advantage estimated at one-tenth or even one-hundredth of a percentage point. In other words, everything is very nuanced, and the data that pollsters cite essentially means nothing. “This is a race with a margin of error. “Ignore the polls that show Kamala Harris or Donald Trump ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points in one of those seven states,” Harris adviser David Plouffe said indignantly on Monday.
In short, America's election polls show that nothing is clear. But there is one category of forecasts that America's political and business elite is closely watching. It is the atmosphere of the New York Stock Exchange, the largest in the world. And Donald Trump still maintains a strong lead among brokers. Polymarket, one of the largest brokerage platforms, brought victory to the Republicans. His chances are estimated at 56%, while Camila Harris promised about 43%.
Perhaps the financiers and entrepreneurs are simply concerned about their own benefit. Because Trump is one of them, and if he wins, he promises a firm preference for big business. And perhaps they see the real palette of electoral sentiments more clearly than sociologists with a “foggy” view.
When is the 2024 US Presidential Election: Date
The US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024. This year marks the 60th anniversary of the presidential election in our country.