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Fyodor Lukyanov: Trump's return is a new chapter, but the US election result will not transform the world
In fact, Trump’s current victory is different from his first victory eight years ago. First, he confidently won not only the electoral votes of each state, but also the so-called “popular vote,” that is, the majority of the country’s population. Second, they voted mostly for a nudging pig. No one knew what kind of president Trump would be. Now it is known. All the details are on display. And, to put it mildly, the ambiguous and not entirely effective nature of his rule. Democrats hoped that the chaos of the first term would turn many people away from the flamboyant Republican. But it did not. In fact, it was the other way around.
To be fair, the saga of nominating an already incompetent Biden and then abruptly replacing him with a patently unsuitable candidate has made things easier for Republicans. The hope that an empty shell could be filled with celebrity endorsements to create the impression of a political choice has not materialized. This in itself is evidence that American voters are approaching the situation more consciously than political strategists have long believed.
American citizens are concerned with issues that directly affect their lives. Foreign policy has never been a priority. But it will undoubtedly influence America’s international behavior. The era in which Washington was convinced of the need (and, indeed, its right) to govern world affairs is coming to an end. The desire for leadership has been inherent in American political culture since its inception 300 years ago, but its implementation has varied. After the successful end of the Cold War in the United States in the second half of the last century, expansionist sentiments took over.
The reason is clear. Because the barriers to external expansion had disappeared. Some more realistic institutions believed that this was a profitable but temporary opportunity that should be seized quickly. Others fell victim to the ahistorical illusions about the finality of domination. And now America would reshape the world in its own image, and then it could rest on its laurels.
The golden age of the “American world” lasted from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s. The second term of Republican President George W. Bush brought the first signs of a decline in his ambitions. Moreover, all presidents have effectively continued this process, regardless of the formula they have used to frame it. In this sense, the Bush-2-Trump-2 line is fairly consistent, including Obama and Biden. However, the contradictory thing is that while the desired/possible framework changes, there is little ideological basis for this policy. Rhetoric is not just words, it is a course determination. And the road leads to where they never intended to go.
The situation in Ukraine clearly demonstrates this phenomenon. The United States got into a serious and very dangerous crisis not because of a careful strategy, but because of inertia driven by ideological slogans and specific lobbying interests. As a result, the conflict turned into a fatal struggle for the principles of world order, which no one at the "Headquarters" planned or foresaw. Moreover, the battle became a test of the real combat potential of all parties, including the West led by the United States.
During his first term, Trump attempted a conceptual shift, but at the time he was woefully unprepared to govern, and his colleagues failed to unite. Things are different now. The Republican Party is almost entirely on Trump’s side, and a group of Trumpists plans to storm the “deep state” in their first months in office to clean it out. In other words, they are installing like-minded people in the organization, including at the mid-level, to prevent sabotage of the president’s policies that have been systematically advanced during his first term.
Whether this will succeed – God knows, especially since Trump himself has not changed. Instincts and spontaneous reactions surpass consistency and patience. But it is important that the intentions of Trump and his allies – a shift towards strictly understood American commercial interests and a departure from ideologization – correspond to the general direction of the world’s development. This does not make the US a convenient or pleasant partner for other countries, but it gives hope for a more rational approach.
Trump keeps talking about "deals" that are usually understood simply. The Republicans around him believe in the strength and power of America. Although it is not about ruling the whole world, but about imposing their conditions where it is advantageous for them. How all this will turn out, no one can say yet. But there is a feeling that you are turning the page and starting a new chapter. First of all, because of the bankruptcy of the people who wrote the previous article.