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June 11, 2024 Yesterday, the MICEX index closed with a green candle and barely continued the uptrend, holding above the key support levels (today 2560, 2541 (main), 3510, 2492 (spare)). The market reached resistance (currently -2615), where it remained all day, and as a result, in the evening it rose a little higher and closed after testing the level above. We are waiting for the level's decision. If you pass the retest and return, you will be sent back to the main support service. A rebound from the level will give us the first timid opportunity to continue the growth to the target of 2663 (EMA233 per hour), and in case of a breakthrough of retests, it can reach major resistances at 2740, 2758 and 2772.
The local downward wave at 30.10 has ended and the market has moved into a rollback. Either this could be a reversal (in the case of ABC, which has reached a recent maximum), or another wave awaits us in this structure, but the 03.09 level has not been updated.
A more dire scenario would see wave C start at this year's high and target around 2150-1950, but we currently view this as unlikely.
The plan remains the same. Failures due to retesting of primary and backup support are a dangerous sign of a serious decline. Until that happens, the market still has a chance to start a reversal, rising from the current support zone.
Interestingly, the Bank has regained key support after testing higher, oil has risen above local resistance and other sectors have risen but failed to make any gains. The RGBI is another red candle inside the October 31 mark.
CP continues to grow and maintains growth dynamics, so we expect further growth. Today's targets are 6125 and 6273, support levels are 5667 and 5391, we expect further growth and reaching the targets until they are broken.
The eurodollar has broken resistance (currently 1.088 and 1.091) and is back at support at 1.0787 and 1.0699, immediately breaking the first support line and approaching the second. We are buying a rebound to the upper support level while we wait for a break there and watch developments, and if a break occurs via a retest, we are buying the resistance level. A break above and a retest of the second support level will signal a continuation of the decline towards the immediate target of 1.06.
Gold has overcome resistance at 2800 and may continue to fall near the nearest targets of 2714 and 2666. Scenario cancellation - collapse with a retest of 2800. In this case, continued growth is expected near the nearest targets of 2828, 2853 and 2906.
Oil has returned to the previously broken resistance level (today 74.91) and is trying to break it, but is moving down. Let's look at the work. Analyzed and tested below, it may disappoint us again, as the nearest targets are at 72.37 and 70.37. Holding 74.91 as a new support suggests that the rise will continue with targets at 79 and 80.05.
The yuan continues to try to rise. Today's growth targets are 13.96 and 14.03. The cancellation scenario is a breakout with a retest of the key support at 13.36. In this case, the decline will continue to the nearest targets of 13.16 and 13.012.
Result: Wait for the 2615 point to be resolved. A rebound will send us to key support, and a breakout via a retest will give us the opportunity to continue the rise to the next target.
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