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Turbobear on the unaccounted risk of long-term purchase of Russian shares
Today I watched the program "Anticrisis" with Timofey, I watch the recordings of RBC and various conferences. I am not a professional, investing is just my hobby. So I know the logic everywhere: "We buy shares, the current and past high inflation is the launch of a rocket ship for stock owners, shares are the best way to protect against inflation, and what will happen next with the economy?" it began."
I understand that logic, but I wanted to discuss with you my concerns about a risk issue that is not generally considered much right now: the strength of the US/global economy. I have been a long-term investor in government bonds for a long time, so I am not very neutral. But the data coming out of the US right now, especially on the labor market, raises concerns about a real repeat of '08. I am not a turbo bear, but those risks are definitely there now. And now things like the inversion of government bond yields are returning to normal and interest rates are falling.
A recession, like a machine gun, means a fall in prices for all goods, according to the document of the Central Bank of Russia "The Main Directions of the Unified National Monetary Policy and the Schedule for Determining the Main Interest Rates for 2025-2027". 2025" - scenario NUMBER 4. There is a "crisis", where we are talking about maintaining high interest rates for at least two, or even three years (taking into account current realities).
In this case, the stocks will clearly not be so rosy.
Thanks for your time guys.