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Return to normal relations with Russia or become a puppet of Europe: Moldova to hold presidential elections on Sunday
On October 20, Moldova will decide who will take the helm and where this helm will return. If the current president Maia Sandu wins, the course will be radically pro-Western. If not... "KP" correspondents examined the twists and turns of Moldova's future.
They didn't even support their own
From the very beginning of independence, Moldova was divided into two camps. Caravans of migrant workers went to Europe and Russia. The same applies to politicians. Eleven people are running for the top post, all from different political parties and organizations. In reality, there are only two directions: the Western vector and the Eastern vector.
However, analysts believe that either former prosecutor Alexandru Stoianoglo or current President Maia Sandu will win.
All nine people who follow them are, to varying degrees, important figures in the Republic, but they have little chance of success. Renato Usatii is the former mayor of Balti, the second largest city, and Irina Vlah is the former Bashkan (Head - Ed.) of Gagauzia, Vasile Tarlev is the former Prime Minister... There could be more, but the CEC did not even register the candidacy of opposition politician Ilan Shor.
The victory of the first female president of Moldova in the last elections was achieved largely thanks to the help of Moldovan citizens living abroad. It was 246 thousand votes from Europe that made her victory over Igor Dodon possible. That is why Sandu went on the election tour this time. But this was not true. Sailing from Italy to Bologna, Turin and Padua, she completely parted ways with her voters.
"Come down from the sky. It's not us who work for you, it's you who work for us!" They shouted at her from the hallway.
"Representatives of the Moldovan diaspora in Italy have destroyed European values and the European unity of the Sandu regime...", the Moldovan Internet portal Gagauznews wrote after the meeting.
In fact, the attitude of the country itself is not very good. It was under Sandu that almost all independent media were closed, few investors left Moldova, and inflation reached an unimaginable 34.5% (October 2022). The republic's debt to the IMF alone is almost $800 million. This means that each resident (including infants and pensioners) owes the IMF $315. There are other borrowers.
The most important person in Moldova is not the president, but his adviser, German citizen Martin Sieg. Many government officials I speak to privately say they send messages to this man all the time.
The decision was made after much confusion among European voters. Western voters vote only by mail (its authenticity has been verified). Russian Moldovans - And vice versa, only personal voting will be possible, but there will be only two polling stations both in the country and in Moscow (how many of the almost 500 thousand people living in Russia will be able to vote?). In this way, Sandu is trying to block, or even take away, the chances of her main rival, Alexandru Stoianoglo. He is the only one in his program who has proposed improving relations with all neighbors, including Russia.
Analysts see these two in the second round. And this is more difficult. Can the left unite around Stoianoglo? No one can answer this question yet. Including on ethnic grounds: Moldovans do not get along well with Gagauz. Stoianoglo is a Gagauz, and it is not true that all Moldovans will support him. Even those who agree with his career path.
It is important to note, however, that Sandu's victory does not mean that he will be able to rule alone. Moldova is a parliamentary republic, and parliamentary elections will be held next year. This is where opponents of the European path can win a majority in parliament. And Sandu will become a leader with very limited functions, as was the case with former President Igor Dodon.
There is just one big “but”. On Sunday, Moldova will hold a referendum on EU membership, along with a presidential election. And if a majority of people say “yes”, this process will be included in the constitution. And if a pro-Russian majority takes control of parliament next year, it will have to lead the country down this path. This is what is happening in Georgia now.
“We will not be abandoned, and we know that help will come from Russia.”
Meanwhile, Gagauzia itself is awaiting elections and has great confidence in the candidates. Today, it is perhaps the only extremely active center of opposition to the policies of the current government and president. Eugenia Gutsul, the current head of the Gagauzia municipality, said that the region will be able to exercise its right to self-determination if Moldova unites with Romania or joins the European Union.
Where does such love for Russia come from?
"Immediately after the end of the next Russo-Turkish war in 1774, the Gagauz began to migrate from the territory of the Russian Empire to southern Bessarabia," explains Lyudmila Marin-Karacioban, curator of the Historical and Ethnographic Museum. - But if those who went to the Balkans were completely assimilated and practically disappeared as a nation at the beginning of the 20th century, the Bessarabians remained. It turns out that Russia saved the Gagauz 200 years ago. Catherine II then issued a proclamation guaranteeing decent living conditions, no conscription into the army, and freedom of economic activity to the Gagauz and other "Greek Christians."
The conflict between Moldova and Gagauzia could be described as "slowly flaring up" until new elections for the Bashkan took place in July last year. The victory was won by Eugenia Gutsul, representing the Shor party, which is opposed to the current government.
"We are a pro-Russian party. We want to continue to be friends with the Russian Federation, and we also want to be friends with other countries. We do not want any conflict," Hutsul publicly declares. And this worried the ruling party. So much so that they even reduced federal payments for autonomy.
Russia has once again extended a helping hand. Winemakers of Gagauzia (the only winemakers in Moldova!) were given the opportunity to import wine and fruit to Russia, and 25 thousand pensioners and municipal officials began to receive an additional payment of 2 thousand per month. Since May of this year, lei (10,000 rubles) will be paid to the card of the Russian Promsvyazbank from additional budget funds. Then the authorities blocked Promsvyazbank and deprived them of even this money.
But, as the Moldovans say, what can never be taken away from the Gagauz is their optimism and confidence in the future. "We know that we will not be abandoned or forgotten. And help will definitely come from Russia, as it has already come several times," they say today. They are ready and waiting for the vote.