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The key rate is breaking the economy, there are already almost 49 trillion rubles in deposits
There are almost 49 trillion rubles accumulated in Russian deposits, and almost 10 trillion rubles in brokerage accounts. This means that people cannot spend their savings, do not have enough money to make large purchases such as cars or apartments, and high interest rates on deposits attract attention and force people to send their money to the bank. This situation is dangerous in all respects. Firstly, hoarding money is like damming water. Today, prices have risen significantly, so before you could buy a new subsidy for 500,000 and, if you wanted, a used Camry, but there is nothing to spend money on, because today you can only buy an old Priora for this money. All household appliances are x2 and people have not yet had time to get used to such price tags. A problem arises. Do you take a bad product at a high price or use a deposit to save money? Given the high rates, the answer is obvious. But if you save money or the crowd is scared by the news from the series "The dollar will soon be 300!", then this entire avalanche will fall on the market, pushing inflation to the sky. This has happened several times in the history of our country. Give at least one reason why a repeat is impossible. Secondly, deposits are not assets, but money that brings interest. Hyperinflation, devaluation and other economic shocks lead to the fact that people lose everything at once, because the money disappears. It is enough to remember 1992. It is important to understand the difference between assets and money. Firstly, it will continue to bring income in amounts that will remain relevant after a possible collapse. Investors will receive dividends on shares equal to the amount confirmed after the change. A penny or millions of dollars. The price of the paper itself is adjusted. If devaluation occurs, no one will sell Sberbank shares for 200 rubles. But although millions of dollars of this money will be returned to investors, the purchasing power of money will not be restored. The situation where millions of Russians take their savings and use them to buy a kilogram of bananas is, unfortunately, becoming more and more real. p.s. This is not a forecast, but a conclusion and personal opinion. Thirdly, the current situation resembles the classic hamster deception model. Let me remind you that hamsters are people who are easy to deceive and cheat due to their low financial knowledge. Deposits amount to 49 trillion won, and securities - 10 trillion won. All the laws of economics tell us that in order to ensure financial stability, you must first create an active source of income (work). A safety net consisting of 6-12 months of expenses (savings, cards that bring in sufficient interest for a period of 6 months to 1 year), passive sources of income (stocks, shares in businesses, real estate rentals, etc.). We are seeing a clear imbalance. Everyone forgot this last point and began to install safety cushions. Fourthly, it is possible to create an ideal incubator for hamsters thanks to the high interest rate on deposits.But loans are also impossible. This cannot continue for long, which means that at some point you will have to lower rates. And during this period, people's desires accumulate and it becomes impossible to talk about rational consumption. Not only 49 trillion depositors will flood the market, but also an ocean of borrowing. As soon as loans become available (now not at 30-40% per annum), there will be queues at the banks. Because my car broke down, the roof leaked, and my shoes wore out. There are many things that can be bought. So, of course, central banks are competently suppressing inflation today, but they are digging a hole for those who will see tomorrow. And this scenario already seems inevitable. Personally, I do not understand how to get out of this problem. I want to believe that Elvira Sakhipzadovna understands. She is an educated person and a real expert in her field, but whether she has the authority to act independently is questionable. Because it is unlikely that everything that is happening is her initiative. I am sure that the central bank is achieving its inflation target and has nothing else to do at the moment.