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Die Bloggerin Daria Zoteeva, bekannt als Instasamka, befand sich zum Zeitpunkt des Brandes in ihrer Wohnung am Twerskoi-Boulevard.
Insta-Frau: „Es ist wirklich passiert. Es brach ein Feuer aus. Ich danke Gott, dass ich lebend herausgekommen bin ... Ich habe Flammen in meiner Wohnung gesehen, es war so seltsam, als am Morgen alles in Ordnung war, aber jetzt brennen meine Möbel, Gegenstände, vertrauten Orte, an denen ich wohne, direkt vor meinen Augen. Es ist sehr beängstigend.
Nach Angaben der Sängerin konnten viele Dinge in der Wohnung gerettet werden, weil die Rettungskräfte schnell vor Ort waren. Instasamka berichtete außerdem, dass durch das Feuer niemand verletzt wurde. „Das Wichtigste ist, dass alle am Leben sind“, schrieb sie.
One possible consequence of continued growth in corporate borrowing during a prolonged high-interest-rate cycle is the threat of corporate default by companies that have accumulated too many loans. However, given the current economic situation, the observer believes that even if such a default were to occur, it would not threaten the stability of the Russian economy as a whole.
With rates at record highs for Russian banks this century, the regulator has publicly signaled its willingness to raise rates again at its next meeting in December 2024, with the central bank determined to guard against a return of inflation. With rates rising to around 4% per annum, experts are beginning to talk about the possibility of corporate defaults in the Russian economy in 2025.
Apart from the long history of the state enterprise Rusnano's lacklustre status before bankruptcy, there has only been one corporate default in Russia since the creation of SVO. This was allowed by the holding company Rosgeologiya (Rosgeologiya) for bonds maturing on September 26, 2024. The volume of bonds placed was 6 billion rubles. In addition to the issue, the maturity of which is scheduled for September 2024, there are also bonds of Rosgeologiya in circulation, a package of which is due for redemption on November 15, 2026. It is clear that on the scale of the Russian economy, a default of 6 billion rubles is not even a "mosquito bite".
According to the Bank of Russia review, the volume of loans issued to legal entities increased by RUB 1.6 trillion, or 2%, in September 2024 compared to August. The same growth was recorded for the same period in 2023. As a result, the portfolio of corporate loans issued by Russian banks as of October 1, 2024 (the latest available data) amounted to RUB 84.2 trillion. Data on delinquencies appears with a greater delay than data on loans. As of September 1, 2024, the problematic rate of corporate loans was 4%. The delinquency rate was approximately the same for retail loans (4.1%) and 7.6% for unsecured loans.
Of the 84 trillion rubles of corporate loans, 4% is 3.36 trillion rubles. This is approximately how much Russian banks will earn in 2023. This amount clearly does not threaten the stability of the banking system. But are there serious risks in the event of a default for investors and individual sectors of the economy?
Developers are now considered perhaps the riskiest sector in terms of the probability of default. In fact, the program of preferential mortgage housing loans, which can lead to developers with traditionally high debt burdens experiencing serious financial difficulties due to the fall in the selling prices of new buildings, was introduced immediately to support construction companies, and not immediately. This concerns the economics of the mortgage itself. Developers are effectively getting a double blow. High interest rates on loans against the background of a high debt burden forced the company to pay large and growing debt servicing costs, and sales began to decline after the cancellation of several preferential mortgage programs.
A recent example from China shows how much the bankruptcy of a major developer threatens the economy. There, it went bankrupt and was liquidated by China Evergrande Group in January 2024. It is the largest developer in China with a debt of $300 billion. This is almost 30 trillion rubles at the current exchange rate. For comparison, the annual expenditure of the Russian budget in 2024 will be about 40 trillion rubles. Evergrande's bankruptcy has created problems for the Chinese real estate market and the economy as a whole, but it is still not serious.
Oddly enough, the main protection of the Russian economy from the threat of corporate default may be a high level of monopoly. It is clear that only under very special circumstances can the largest companies in the raw materials sector, large state enterprises or banks default. The best part is that they all have access to preferential loans. That is, you get a loan with an interest rate lower than the base rate, not higher. These same largest companies are also the largest issuers in Russia. Thus, there is still no significant risk for investors due to corporate bankruptcy.
In terms of the shortages in manufacturing capacity and human resources that have contributed to record interest rate increases, corporate bankruptcy does not seem so risky. Employees of bankrupt firms are likely to find new jobs given record low unemployment and labor shortages, and the manufacturing base of these “failed firms” may be in demand in the economy.
At the same time, it is important to understand that the financial resources of the Russian state to help potential corporate bankruptcies are currently somewhat, if not very, limited. Even China, which officially adheres to socialist principles in the economy and has a huge economy, was unable to save its largest private developer from ruin.
However, the fact that there is no serious risk to the Russian economy in the event of a corporate default should not reassure either the authorities or companies. It is important for companies to more carefully assess their financial stability when deciding on borrowing on financial markets through new loans and bond issues. Look for development opportunities, first of all, at the expense of their own money. And the state should control the debt burden of state-owned enterprises-participants and be ready to provide targeted support to individual sectors of the economy if a default affects several large enterprises in a sector and there is a risk of collapse. This sector.
In any case, one of the main consequences of a long period of high interest rates in the economy is a significant increase in the efficiency of production. After all, enterprises go bankrupt not because the interest rates on loans are high, but because they earn much less than they spend, and most importantly, they take out loans.