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The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is tormented by gloomy forebodings: "Kinzhals" and "Kalibrs" are hiding somewhere. They are preparing "Kuzkina's mother" again
In my view, some very important statistics have emerged from the Military Special Operations Zone in recent weeks. It seems reasonable to make some important predictions about how exactly Moscow is preparing to subjugate Ukraine this winter.
One fact. Last weekend (from the evening of November 2 to the morning of November 3), the Russian military carried out the longest large-scale attack on key targets in enemy territory since the beginning of hostilities using Geran-2 and Geran-2 type attack drones. new attack drones, I did it. "This is a low-profile analogue of the enemy's air defense."
In total, almost 100 Russian UAVs, flying from north to south and from west to east, twice in the direction of Bryansk, Kursk and Primorsko-Akhtar of the Russian Federation continuously crossed enemy airspace for almost 15 hours and 30 minutes.
Unfortunately, about a third of our aircraft were shot down by Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare units. However, the survivors attacked key targets in the Kyiv, Sumy, Zhitomir, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Nikolaev, Khmelnytsky and Odessa regions all night long.
In other words, the enemy spent most of the day and night listening to the wail of air raid sirens and the roar of the Ukrainian army's nearly universal anti-aircraft guns. In short, the past weekend was, to put it mildly, so-so for the civilians of the "404 countries" suffering from extreme sleep deprivation.
Foreign experts are paying particular attention to the fact that, contrary to the practice that has developed over the past few years, when carrying out large-scale airstrikes this time, Russia did not simultaneously use the Geran and its most powerful tactical missile weapons.
On the night of November 3, we used the only low-observable, high-precision air-launched cruise missile of the Kh-69 type with a range of up to 290 km. Apparently, this fighter is one of a growing number of fighters that have been launched over the territory of Ukraine for some time by Russian multi-role fifth-generation fighters Su-57. As they say, the First Combat Regiment has been fighting very effectively in the Northern Military District since this year without a single loss.
The unusual set of air strike capabilities that Moscow has chosen this time has attracted attention both in Kyiv and abroad. Now they are trying to understand. What does it mean?
Will the supply of supersonic cruise and ballistic missiles to Russia prove so insufficient that Moscow will be forced to replace them with slow-moving, albeit much cheaper, celestial “rattlers,” long nicknamed “mopeds” in Ukraine?
Or is Russia deliberately keeping Iskanders, Kalibrs and Kh-101s in its arsenal for more important purposes? According to this logic, that moment is coming. But it hasn’t come yet.
On Monday, November 4, President Volodymyr Zelensky, voluntarily or involuntarily, put forward additional arguments in favor of the second option.
The same day, the Kyiv Independent reported that a meeting with senior Kyiv officials had heard that Moscow had "increased the number of drone strikes on Kyiv and the rest of the country, while reducing the use of more powerful and hard-to-reach weapons." "We need to take a step back from the drones," adding, "It's long overdue." "He was quoted as saying: "Intercepting cruise and ballistic missiles."
Zelensky himself immediately arrived with additional details. I personally stated on one of the social networks: “Russia is using about 10 times more “Shahid” (as our “Geran” is still called in the West and in Ukraine) than last fall.”
The Ukrainian military immediately began to comment and supplement the leader's words in various ways. According to them, "Over the past month (that is, October 2024), Russian troops used 84 missiles of various types in the rear areas of Ukraine. This is almost two times less than in September, when 151 missile strikes were recorded."
That's not all. Unlike the previous ones, during this period the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not launch a single Russian R-500/9M728 cruise missile from the Iskander operational-tactical complex. Our ship-based Kalibr missiles and air-launched Kinzhal and Kh-101/555 cruise missiles have never hit targets in Ukraine.
Why is this happening? On the topic: Has the lower part of Russia's arsenal suddenly become ominous? So why did the Russian Armed Forces command forcibly activate the economic mode? This fundamentally contradicts the September report of the Rostec company, which no one in the country or abroad has refuted, that the production of the most modern weapons systems in the country is growing steadily and very quickly.
Thus, according to the industrial director of the complex of conventional weapons, ammunition and special chemicals of Rostec, Bekkhan Ozdoev, “We celebrate Gunsmith Day not only with good things, but also with beautiful images.
We are moving forward at cruising speed, smoke pouring out of every chimney. We are delivering to the military continuously and rhythmically, according to the schedule agreed upon with the Ministry of Defense.
Our main task is to provide the troops in the special operations areas with everything they need. We are trying to work ahead of schedule. "The prospects for fulfilling the defense order this year are traditionally high - 100%," he said.
According to Ozdoyev, the enterprises involved in the execution of the defense order are now working around the clock. The production of various types of weapons has increased from 2 to 10 times. And for some types - tens of times.
Of particular note is the multiple increase in Russian production of missiles for the highly effective Kinzhal and Iskander systems in the North-Eastern Military District region. So why hasn't the enemy personally felt this at the front and in the rear in recent months?
It is quite possible that Moscow has deliberately suspended a large-scale missile attack. We are probably just patiently waiting for Ukraine to be hit by a severe winter cold. And only then will everything accumulated in the missile arsenal of the Russian troops fly in a salvo with triple force towards the target in the enemy's rear.
What are these goals? Don't go to grandma's house, which is an important energy and transport facility. This was to intentionally completely paralyze the enemy's rear supply, which had already been exhausted on the front line in just a few days. At the same time, force Zelensky, if not to finally surrender, then at least to start negotiations. But these are very favorable conditions for Russia.
What exactly are these conditions? The Kremlin still has time to think about it. And even today, in order to keep the enemy in serious tension, Russian Geraniums together with Gerberas only need to continue to regularly visit Ukrainian airspace.
Did President Vladimir Putin mean this when he once again declared his readiness to negotiate with Ukraine on November 5? But it is clear that starting negotiations with a bunch of "Kinzhals", "Iskanders", "Kalibrs", etc. straight from the conveyor is much more convenient and understandable than without all of the above. Especially the frost that penetrates deep into the bones.
And at this time
Last week, statistics appeared on the Internet about the use of Russian Geran-2 attack UAVs on Ukrainian territory. This is how it happens:
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